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<\/div>\nPrediction markets had themselves another lively week. Kalshi rolled out shiny new NFL contracts<\/a> even as lawyers kept filing lawsuits<\/a> faster than you can say \u201cparlay.\u201d<\/p>\n This time it was a second tribal challenge<\/a>, aimed at keeping Kalshi off tribal lands. But the real twist came from the NCAA, which finally peeked its head above the parapet and muttered something about integrity and prediction markets after Robinhood launched pro and college football prediction markets<\/a> through its app.<\/p>\n NCAA statement in response to Robinhood offering college football prediction markets: <\/p>\n "Sport\u00a0integrity is paramount for the NCAA, and we are deeply concerned by unregulated and unprotected markets\u00a0that pose a threat to competition integrity and student-athlete safety. We will\u2026<\/p>\n — Pat Forde (@ByPatForde) August 21, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Tim Buckley, the NCAA\u2019s senior vice president of external affairs, gave us the usual formal statement: \u201cSport integrity is paramount for the NCAA, and we are deeply concerned by unregulated and unprotected markets that pose a threat to competition integrity and student-athlete safety.\u201d He also promised that the NCAA would continue working with industry leaders to \u201censure guardrails and regulations.\u201d<\/p>\n That all sounds nice, until you notice a few missing ingredients. First, Kalshi is actually regulated<\/a>. You may not like how it\u2019s regulated, and you may think the CFTC is playing the role of the world\u2019s sleepiest chaperone, but technically, it\u2019s regulation. Polymarket, for the record, still can\u2019t legally serve US users, so the NCAA doesn\u2019t need to lose sleep over that part just yet.<\/p>\n Kalshi even has an integrity partner, IC360, though that\u2019s a voluntary handshake, not a regulatory requirement. So when the NCAA says it wants to \u201cwork with industry leaders to help ensure guardrails,\u201d what does that mean? Because spoiler alert – no regulations are arriving. Even if the CFTC woke up tomorrow with a sudden passion for sports contracts, we\u2019d be years away from an actual rulebook.<\/p>\n So, the NCAA is left with the option of cozying up directly to Kalshi and friends. That\u2019s not exactly a safe bet. And meanwhile, markets are moving forward anyway. What\u2019s to stop Kalshi from offering props on college athletes? Not much. The CFTC isn\u2019t going to gallop in on a white horse to protect March Madness. And Kalshi\u2019s existing oversight doesn\u2019t scream \u201cline in the sand.\u201d<\/p>\n And Polymarket isn\u2019t about to sit this one out forever. Crypto.com even dabbled in prediction-style betting too. The NCAA\u2019s adversaries are multiplying like heads on a hydra, and all the NCAA has brought to the fight so far is a stern press release.<\/p>\n To make matters worse, prediction markets aren\u2019t the only problem knocking at the door. There\u2019s the small matter of AI-powered \u201cgeneral predictive intelligence,\u201d which sounds like the plot device from a techno-thriller but could end up turbocharging markets in ways the NCAA hasn\u2019t even begun to imagine.<\/p>\n In short, the NCAA can keep wringing its hands about integrity. But unless it speeds things up, it risks becoming the organization that was \u201cdeeply concerned\u201d while everyone else started betting on whether the quarterback would oversleep his 8 am class.<\/p>\n Kalshi just cannot escape Fed drama<\/a> these days and the latest obsession is Jerome Powell\u2019s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Wyoming, where the world\u2019s central bankers gather to talk shop between August 21 and 23. Powell, still the Fed chair for now, has the unenviable task of explaining where the US economy is heading while President Donald Trump continues his unusual hobby of publicly undermining central bank independence.<\/p>\n Markets are desperate for Powell to drop hints. For five straight meetings the Fed has held rates steady, ignoring Trump\u2019s cries for immediate cuts. Policymakers want more clarity on what the president\u2019s tariffs, deportation pushes, and general unpredictability are actually doing to the economy. At Jackson Hole, Powell is expected to sketch the outlook, his last speech at the annual central banker jamboree before his term runs out in May.<\/p>\n Naturally, Kalshi users are already trading on the precise words<\/a> Powell will use. More than $235,000 has been staked on terms ranging from the obvious \u201cSymposium\u201d to the nerdy \u201cBalance of risks.\u201d A striking 57% of traders are betting Powell will talk about layoffs.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, vultures have been circling over Powell\u2019s successor. Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, and Trump\u2019s ally Kevin Hassett are all considered contenders for Powell\u2019s chair if the musical chairs at the Fed begin in earnest.<\/p>\n On a side note, prediction markets are suddenly bustling with action over the next Democratic presidential nominee<\/a>. California governor Gavin Newsom, despite being under fire for allegedly blocking a casino<\/a> after pocketing $2 million in tribal donations, has seen his odds skyrocket. He now sits at 28%, comfortably ahead of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 13%, with nearly $17 million wagered overall. Pete Buttigieg, for the moment, is jogging along in single digits at 9%.<\/p>\n BREAKING: Gavin Newsom's odds to be the 2028 Democratic nominee surge to a new all time high pic.twitter.com\/puUWwNpr8G<\/a><\/p>\n — Kalshi (@Kalshi) August 20, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Newsom, it seems, has cracked open the Trump playbook. In recent days he\u2019s posted himself atop Mount Rushmore, been prayed over by Tucker Carlson, Kid Rock, and a winged Hulk Hogan, and taken to writing in ALL CAPS on social media. \u201cHe\u2019s trying to mimic President Trump,\u201d Steve Bannon told POLITICO<\/a>, and the markets, at least, are starting to think it\u2019s working.<\/p>\n And if that weren\u2019t enough, prediction markets are colliding with artificial intelligence. Enter Prophet Arena, a project out of the University of Chicago\u2019s SIGMA Lab, which tests AI models not on past data but on live unresolved events, many pulled straight from Kalshi and Polymarket. \u201cBy anchoring evaluations in unresolved, real-world events, Prophet Arena ensures a level playing field,\u201d the researchers wrote.<\/p>\n That is, can AI truly predict the future by connecting today\u2019s dots?<\/p>\n – It can\u2019t be hacked. Most benchmarks saturate over time, but here models face live, unseen\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/rhwR5WlU9d<\/a><\/p>\n — Prophet Arena (@ProphetArena) August 17, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n So far, machines seem to be holding their own. GPT-5 tops the leaderboard with an 82.21% Brier score, while OpenAI\u2019s o3-mini leads in raw profits when its calls are converted into simulated wagers. Kalshi itself has been dabbling in AI, recently linking up with Elon Musk\u2019s Grok, while Polymarket has begun spitting out AI-generated summaries of its markets.<\/p>\n If the machines keep improving, they could strip away all the sentiment and second-guessing that plague human traders. No gut feelings, no mood swings, just cold forecasting. In that case, the old \u201cwisdom of the crowd\u201d might soon have to share the stage with the wisdom of the algorithm.<\/p>\n If Kalshi is keeping things buttoned-up, Polymarket is happily leaning into the spectacle of Powell\u2019s Jackson Hole appearance<\/a>. True to its social, buzzy reputation, traders have pushed the limits of what counts as a market. Roughly 83% believe Powell will mention the pandemic, 63% are betting on unemployment, and the most popular wager of all is whether he\u2019ll bother to say \u201cGood morning.\u201d<\/p>\n Behind the cheekier bets lies the real question whether Powell\u2019s speech will signal the Fed\u2019s latest policy. Investors are mostly expecting a quarter-point cut in September, but as Deutsche Bank analysts warned earlier this week, the address could end up \u201ccreating uncertainty\u201d rather than clearing the air.<\/p>\n Featured image: Canva \/ Grok<\/em><\/p>\n The post Prediction Pulse: Kalshi and Polymarket face competition from Prophet Arena, plus Jerome Powell\u2019s speech<\/a> appeared first on ReadWrite<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n
What\u2019s on this week\u2019s prediction markets<\/span><\/h2>\n
Kalshi<\/span><\/h3>\n
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![\"\ud83d\udd2e\"](\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.1.0\/72x72\/1f52e.png\")
Introducing Prophet Arena \u2014 the AI benchmark for general predictive intelligence.<\/p>\n![\"\ud83d\udc49\"](\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.1.0\/72x72\/1f449.png\")
What makes it special?<\/p>\nPolymarket<\/span><\/h3>\n
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