{"id":346988,"date":"2025-08-19T13:22:22","date_gmt":"2025-08-19T18:22:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/19\/residential-investment-nowcast-down-5-9-q-q-ar\/"},"modified":"2025-08-19T13:22:22","modified_gmt":"2025-08-19T18:22:22","slug":"residential-investment-nowcast-down-5-9-q-q-ar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/19\/residential-investment-nowcast-down-5-9-q-q-ar\/","title":{"rendered":"Residential Investment: Nowcast down 5.9% q\/q AR"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-57667\">&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header -->&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>Based on residential investment construction July release (starts 1.428 mn &gt; 1.29 mn Bbg consensus; permits 1.354mn &lt; 1.39mn Bbg consensus):<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/resinvestpix1.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-57669\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/resinvestpix1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1008\" height=\"576\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/resinvestpix1.png 1008w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/resinvestpix1-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/resinvestpix1-768x439.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/resinvestpix1-624x357.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1008px) 100vw, 1008px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> Residential fixed investment (bold black), Survey of Professional Forecasters August median f\u2019cast (light blue), GDPNow of 8\/19 (dark blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Source: BEA 2025Q2 advance, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Real 10yr interest rates and nominal mortgage rates are slightly below where they were in January 2025, so I\u2019ll focus on policy uncertainty as a possible determinant of the decline in residential investment.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/resinvestpix2.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-57670\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/resinvestpix2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1022\" height=\"576\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/resinvestpix2.png 1022w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/resinvestpix2-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/resinvestpix2-768x433.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/resinvestpix2-624x352.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1022px) 100vw, 1022px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 2:<\/strong> Residential fixed investment (bold black, left scale), GDPNow of 8\/19 (dark blue square, left scale), both in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR, and EPU (3 category legacy series), (red, right scale). Q3 EPU is for July. Light orange shading denotes Trump 2.0 administration. Source: BEA 2025Q2 advance, Atlanta Fed, policyuncertainty.com, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content -->&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t&#13;<\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/08\/residential-investment-nowcast-down-5-9-q-q-ar\" title=\"10:49 am\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2025-08-19T10:49:59-07:00\">August 19, 2025<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->&#13;\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/08\/residential-investment-nowcast-down-5-9-q-q-ar\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] &#13; &#13; &#13; Based on residential investment construction July release (starts 1.428 mn &gt; 1.29 mn Bbg consensus; permits 1.354mn &lt; 1.39mn Bbg consensus):<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":346989,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346988"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=346988"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346988\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/346989"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=346988"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=346988"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=346988"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}