{"id":346775,"date":"2025-08-13T23:27:36","date_gmt":"2025-08-14T04:27:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/13\/business-cycle-indicators-w-monthly-gdp\/"},"modified":"2025-08-13T23:27:36","modified_gmt":"2025-08-14T04:27:36","slug":"business-cycle-indicators-w-monthly-gdp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/13\/business-cycle-indicators-w-monthly-gdp\/","title":{"rendered":"Business Cycle Indicators w\/Monthly GDP"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-57604\">&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header -->&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>SP Global\u2019s monthly GDP series is up (with prediction of flat GDP in Q3):<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/recindic_jul25.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-57605\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/recindic_jul25.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"849\" height=\"532\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/recindic_jul25.png 849w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/recindic_jul25-300x188.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/recindic_jul25-768x481.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/recindic_jul25-624x391.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 849px) 100vw, 849px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> Nonfarm Payroll from CES (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (orange), industrial production (red), Bloomberg implied consensus as of 8\/13 (red square), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2025Q2 advance release, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/marketintelligence\/en\/mi\/research-analysis\/us-monthly-gdp-index-for-october-2022.html\">S&amp;P Global Market Insights<\/a> (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (8\/1\/<\/em><em>2025 release), and author\u2019s calculations.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Bloomberg consensus for industrial production is 0% growth in August (red square).<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content -->&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t&#13;<\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">&#13;<br \/>\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/08\/business-cycle-indicators-w-monthly-gdp\" title=\"7:50 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2025-08-13T19:50:54-07:00\">August 13, 2025<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->&#13;\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/08\/business-cycle-indicators-w-monthly-gdp\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] &#13; &#13; &#13; SP Global\u2019s monthly GDP series is up (with prediction of flat GDP in Q3): Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll from CES (bold<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":346776,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346775"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=346775"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346775\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/346776"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=346775"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=346775"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=346775"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}