{"id":346703,"date":"2025-08-12T13:32:22","date_gmt":"2025-08-12T18:32:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/12\/import-sensitive-cpi-components-core-pce-nowcast-rise\/"},"modified":"2025-08-12T13:32:22","modified_gmt":"2025-08-12T18:32:22","slug":"import-sensitive-cpi-components-core-pce-nowcast-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/12\/import-sensitive-cpi-components-core-pce-nowcast-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"Import Sensitive CPI Components, Core PCE Nowcast Rise"},"content":{"rendered":"

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From the CPI release today:<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> CPI all urban (bold blue), CPI \u2013 household furnishings and operations (tan), CPI \u2013 final demand, consumer durables (green), all in logs 2025M01=0. Source: BLS via FRED, author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

While m\/m CPI headline growth was at consensus, q\/q core was slightly above, so that the core PCE nowcast has moved up:<\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong> Quarter-on-Quarter annualized inflation of CPI (bold black), Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 8\/8 (gray square), Bloomberg consensus, Kalshi betting CT (chartreuse triangle), Goldman Sachs as of 8\/7 (red *), inflation of PCE (bold blue), Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 8\/8 (light blue open square). as of 8\/12 (light blue large square). Source: BLS, BEA, Cleveland Fed<\/a> accessed 8\/8, 8\/12, Bloomberg, Kalshi accessed 8\/8 noon CT, Goldman Sachs, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

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