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Bill McBride\u2019s assessment here<\/a>.<\/p>\n In early April, I went on recession watch, but I\u2019m still not yet predicting a recession for several reasons: the U.S. economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, and perhaps the tariffs are not enough to topple the economy.<\/p>\n In the short term, it is mostly trade policy that will negatively impact the economy. However, there other aspects of policy that bear watching \u2013 especially immigration.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Yesterday, Mark Zandi was stating his case for being wary:<\/p>\n Moody\u2019s Analytics chief economist\u00a0Mark Zandi\u00a0<\/a><\/span>said the\u00a0U.S. economy<\/a>\u00a0is \u201con the precipice of recession,\u201d citing indicators from last week\u2019s economic data releases.<\/p>\n In a social media post Monday, Zandi pointed to stagnant consumer spending, contracting construction and manufacturing sectors and projected employment declines.<\/p>\n\n
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