{"id":346334,"date":"2025-08-01T16:22:58","date_gmt":"2025-08-01T21:22:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/01\/is-it-seasonal-adjustment-econbrowser\/"},"modified":"2025-08-01T16:22:58","modified_gmt":"2025-08-01T21:22:58","slug":"is-it-seasonal-adjustment-econbrowser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/01\/is-it-seasonal-adjustment-econbrowser\/","title":{"rendered":"Is It Seasonal Adjustment? | Econbrowser"},"content":{"rendered":"

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CEA Chair Miran asserts that some of the surprise in the employment numbers is due issues of seasonality<\/a>. Can we see that? I can\u2019t\u2026<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s y\/y growth rate of the official series and the seasonally adjusted series.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> Year-on-year growth rate in seasonally adjusted NFP (blue), and in not seasonally adjusted NFP (tan). Growth rates calculated using log differences. Source:\u00a0 BLS via FRED, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

The seasonally adjusted series is actually above the y\/y not seasonally adjusted series!<\/p>\n

What about the level?<\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong><\/em> Seasonally adjusted NFP (blue),\u00a0 not seasonally adjusted NFP (tan), not seasonally adjusted NFP adjusted by author using X-13 (in logs, 2021M07-2025M07) (green).\u00a0 Source:\u00a0 BLS via FRED, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

Another reason to think the BLS numbers have not been \u201cmassaged\u201d: the July release numbers better track ADP, on private NFP.<\/p>\n

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Figure 3:<\/strong> Private nonfarm payroll employment, July release (bold black), Jun release (purple), ADP July release (green), all s.a.,\u00a0 in logs, 2025M01=0. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

In any case, there are usually big NFP misses around turning points. Civilian employment \u2014 which is not revised month to month \u2014 peaked in April.<\/p>\n

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