{"id":346173,"date":"2025-07-29T12:14:38","date_gmt":"2025-07-29T17:14:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/29\/conference-board-economic-confidence-up-a-little\/"},"modified":"2025-07-29T12:14:38","modified_gmt":"2025-07-29T17:14:38","slug":"conference-board-economic-confidence-up-a-little","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/29\/conference-board-economic-confidence-up-a-little\/","title":{"rendered":"Conference Board: Economic Confidence Up (a Little)"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The Conference Board<\/a> today:<\/p>\n

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The Conference Board\u00a0Consumer Confidence Index<\/em><\/strong>\u00ae<\/a>\u00a0improved by 2.0 points in July to 97.2 (1985=100), from 95.2 in June (revised up by 2.2 points). The\u00a0Present Situation Index<\/em><\/strong>\u2014based on consumers\u2019 assessment of current business and labor market conditions\u2014fell 1.5 points to 131.5. The\u00a0Expectations Index<\/em><\/strong>\u2014based on consumers\u2019 short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions\u2014rose 4.5 points to 74.4. But expectations remained below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead for the sixth consecutive month. The cutoff date for preliminary results was July 20, 2025.<\/p>\n

\u201cConsumer confidence has stabilized since May, rebounding from April\u2019s plunge, but remains below last year\u2019s heady levels,\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2026<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Figure 1 shows the Conference Board\u2019s measure vs. the MIchigan measure, and a text based news sentiment index.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Figure 1:<\/strong> University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Consumer Confidence (tan), and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020)<\/a> SF Daily News Sentiment Index (light green) , all demeaned and normalized by standard deviation (for the 2021-2025M02 sample period); and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020)<\/a> SF Daily News Sentiment Index (black, right scale). The News Index observation for July is through 7\/27\/2025. Orange shading denotes Trump 2.0 administration. Orange dashed line at \u201cLiberation Day\u201d in 2025M04. Source: U.Mich via FRED, Conference Board via Investing.com, SF Fed<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

The Conference Board measure is TWO<\/strong> <\/em>standard deviations lower than November 2024, and ONE<\/strong><\/em> standard deviation below January 2025.<\/p>\n

Note the distinction between current conditions vs. expected.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Source:<\/strong> Conference Board<\/a>, accessed 7\/29\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n

As CB observes, the expectations measure remains below the recession threshold.<\/p>\n

Finally, as for individual households\u2019 views regarding their own expected situation in the future, this figure is relevant.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Source:<\/strong> Conference Board<\/a>, accessed 7\/29\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n

While the \u201cbetter\u201d-\u201cworse\u201d differential has shifted to slightly more positive relative the nadir in April, it is substantially below the January 2025 high point.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[ad_1] The Conference Board today: The Conference Board\u00a0Consumer Confidence Index\u00ae\u00a0improved by 2.0 points in July to 97.2 (1985=100), from 95.2 in June (revised up by<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":346174,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346173"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=346173"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346173\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/346174"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=346173"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=346173"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=346173"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}