{"id":346097,"date":"2025-07-27T14:05:06","date_gmt":"2025-07-27T19:05:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/27\/us-real-exports-flatlining-despite-rising-row-gdp-depreciated-dollar\/"},"modified":"2025-07-27T14:05:06","modified_gmt":"2025-07-27T19:05:06","slug":"us-real-exports-flatlining-despite-rising-row-gdp-depreciated-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/27\/us-real-exports-flatlining-despite-rising-row-gdp-depreciated-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"US Real Exports Flatlining Despite Rising RoW GDP, Depreciated Dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"

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What else did you expect?<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> US exports of goods and services (black, left log scale), GDPNow nowcast (light blue square, left log scale), both in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR; export weighted rest-of-world GDP, 2005=100 (red, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA 2025Q1 3rd release, Atlanta Fed, Dallas Fed, NBER and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

So in Q1, RoW GDP rose but real US exports fell; more telling, the dollar depreciated in inflation adjusted term from January to March, which would have in normal times induced an increase in exports\u2026(dollar depreciation January to June is 6.5% in log terms).<\/p>\n

The Atlanta Fed\u2019s 7\/25 nowcast indicates 3.3% q\/q annualized (0.9% q\/q) decline in Q2 real exports (incorporates monthly trade data through May\u2019s numbers).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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