{"id":346093,"date":"2025-07-27T11:02:27","date_gmt":"2025-07-27T16:02:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/27\/betting-on-2-5-econbrowser\/"},"modified":"2025-07-27T11:02:27","modified_gmt":"2025-07-27T16:02:27","slug":"betting-on-2-5-econbrowser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/27\/betting-on-2-5-econbrowser\/","title":{"rendered":"Betting on 2.5% | Econbrowser"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Kalshi today. 2.4% from GDPNow and the Bloomberg consensus.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/gdppix68.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-57355\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/gdppix68.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1022\" height=\"532\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/gdppix68.png 1022w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/gdppix68-300x156.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/gdppix68-768x400.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/gdppix68-624x325.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1022px) 100vw, 1022px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP as reported (bold black), GDPNow (blue open square), NY Fed (light blue triangle) WSJ July survey mean (tan), Kalshi bet, 7\/28 (pink circle), Bloomberg consensus as of 7\/28 (light green circle), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. All predictions as of 7\/25 unless otherwise indicated. Source: BEA 2025Q1 3rd release, WSJ survey, Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Goldman Sachs, Kalshi.com, and author\u2019s calculations.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Interesting side note: The initial (April 30) GDPNow estimate for Q2 was\u2026 2.4%!<\/p>\n<p>Of course, GDP is somewhat less relevant given distortions due to tariff-front running. Unfortunately, there\u2019s no betting for <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/07\/nowcasts-of-gdp-and-core-gdp\">final sales to private domestic purchasers (aka \u201ccore GDP\u201d per Furman)<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/finsalesprivdompix4a.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-57337\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/finsalesprivdompix4a.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1022\" height=\"576\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/finsalesprivdompix4a.png 1022w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/finsalesprivdompix4a-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/finsalesprivdompix4a-768x433.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/finsalesprivdompix4a-624x352.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1022px) 100vw, 1022px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 2:<\/strong> Final sales to private domestic purchasers, 3rd release (bold black), GDPNow (light blue square), Goldman Sachs (inverted red triangle). All nowcasts are as of 7\/25. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/07\/betting-on-2-5\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Kalshi today. 2.4% from GDPNow and the Bloomberg consensus. Figure 1: GDP as reported (bold black), GDPNow (blue open square), NY Fed (light blue<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":346094,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346093"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=346093"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346093\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/346094"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=346093"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=346093"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=346093"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}