It\u2019s usually in the Mid-Session Review<\/a>, which comes out in July. But no table of forecasts is included this year (you can check\u2013I did!). Which begs the question \u2014 how did they estimate the revenues going forward if they didn\u2019t have GDP projections?<\/p>\n Now, one could argue that the Administration couldn\u2019t make a forecast given uncertainty regarding the OBBB\u2019s passage and contents (the forecast is usually nailed down a couple months in advance, and OBBB was signed into law on July 4). Nonetheless, internally, they needed something in order to calculate a difference under administration preferred policies. I doubt they did what Vought did 2020 \u2014 just retained unchanged the January 2020 forecast associated with the FY2021 budget request in the July Mid-Session Review (see discussion here<\/a>).<\/p>\n So, here\u2019s CEA\u2019s assessment of the OBBB<\/a> summarized:<\/p>\n Source:<\/strong> CEA, <\/a><\/em>The One Big Beautiful Bill \u2013 Legislation for Historic Prosperity and Deficit Reduction<\/a> (June 2025).<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n Here\u2019s the CEA\u2019s forecast illustrated (I have used the midpoint of the 4.6%-4.9% level impact from the Table).<\/p>\n Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (bold black), CBO current law projection of January (tan), implied CEA forecast using CBO current law (red squares), mean forecast from July WSJ survey (blue circles), GDPNow of 7\/24 (light green *), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2025Q1 3rd release, CBO January 2025, CEA (2025)<\/a>, WSJ survey, Atlanta Fed, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n So if you thought the (dynamic scoring) revenue projections for the OBBB from CEA were fantastical (per CRFB)<\/a>, you would have to agree that the growth projections are similarly fantastical.<\/p>\n As noted above, this is not the first time the Trump administration has sought to hide their views on the economy\u2019s likely path. Back in 2020, the Administration kept the same forecast in the Mid-Session Review as had been forwarded in February in the FY2021 budget, so that the pandemic was essentially ignored. Here\u2019s my retrospective from the beginning of 2021<\/a>.<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong> GDP as reported (black), Administration current forecast (red squares), and WSJ December 2020 survey mean (blue). Trough assumed to be 2020Q2. Source: BEA, OMB<\/a>, WSJ, NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n So\u2026don\u2019t believe anything that\u2019s coming out of this administration economics-wise. And, I am sad to say, that includes CEA (see other written material here<\/a>), aside the purely data product of Economic Indicators<\/em><\/a> (joint CEA-JEC).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/cea_obbbtab.png\")
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