{"id":346059,"date":"2025-07-26T03:24:09","date_gmt":"2025-07-26T08:24:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/26\/scary-picture-econbrowser\/"},"modified":"2025-07-26T03:24:09","modified_gmt":"2025-07-26T08:24:09","slug":"scary-picture-econbrowser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/26\/scary-picture-econbrowser\/","title":{"rendered":"Scary Picture? | Econbrowser"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Some macro series. One observation does not make a trend \u2013 but still\u2026<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> Monthly GDP (black), private nonfarm payroll employment-ADP (blue), civilian employment w\/smoothed population controls (light blue), aggregate hours (light green), consumption (tan), personal income ex-transfers (pink), real retail sales (purple), all in logs 2025M01=0. Real retail sales is 3 month centered moving average of retail sales, divided by chained CPI. Source: S&P Global, ADP-Stanford, BLS, BEA, Census, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

Note that NBER\u2019s Business Cycle Dating Committee places primary emphasis on employment and income.<\/p>\n

Series that continue to rise include the Philadelphia Fed\u2019s coincident index. For a more complete tabulation of series, see this post<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

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