From Heritage Chief Economist EJ Antoni on X<\/a>:<\/p>\n N.B.: this is an INDIRECT indicator of tariffs not being passed on b\/c import prices have fallen relative to their domestic counterparts; that\u2019s the result of a substitution effect and foreign producers\u2019 attempt to retain market share by reducing their prices relatively speaking:<\/p>\n \u00b7 Note that Dr. Antoni is apparently using the all commodity imports price index. I think that, since no tariffs have been applied to oil, it would be more appropriate to use the import price index ex-petroleum.<\/p>\n Using this index, and Instead of plotting rates of change, I show price indices relative to 2025M04, given that the 10% tariffs were effective in early April.<\/p>\n Figure 1:<\/strong> Import price index for all commodities (blue), for commodities ex-petroleum (tan), all in logs 2025M04=0. Source: BLS via FRED, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Using this more appropriate series, I do not see the price decrease the Dr. Antoni refers to.<\/p>\n As an aside, I am still waiting for Dr. Antoni to declare the end of the recession he claimed started in 2022<\/a><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n\n
Jul 17
Import prices just came in WAAAY below expectations: June was up just 0.1% M\/M, -0.2% Y\/Y, while May saw a huge downward revision from flat to -0.4% M\/M; still waiting for tariffs to be passed on by foreign producers\u2026<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/GwD2BZQWsAAPuKc.jpg\")
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