There\u2019s a view that civilian employment (household series) peaks before nonfarm payroll employment (establishment series). If true, then time to worry.<\/p>\n
Figure 1: <\/strong>Civilian employment over age 16 (blue), nonfarm payroll employment (tan), private nonfarm payroll employment (red), private nonfarm payroll employment from ADP (red), all in logs 2025M04=0, seasonally adjusted. Civilian employment is experimental series using smoothed population controls to 2024M12. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, BLS, NBER.<\/em><\/p>\n Civilian employment has a peak at April 2025, even as NFP (total, private) have continued to rise. ADP private NFP decreased in June.<\/p>\n In truth, out of the last four recessions, the household series peaks before establishment only twice, as discussed in this post<\/a>.\u00a0 Below\u00a0are the (real-time) depictions of the household and establishment series around recession dates for the previous four recessions.<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong>\u00a0Civilian employment over age 16 (blue, left log scale), nonfarm payroll employment (tan, right log scale), both in 1000\u2019s, seasonally adjusted, both as of 6\/7\/1990. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via ALFRED, NBER.<\/em><\/p>\n Figure 3:<\/strong>\u00a0Civilian employment over age 16 (blue, left log scale), nonfarm payroll employment (tan, right log scale), both in 1000\u2019s, seasonally adjusted, both as of 5\/4\/2001. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via ALFRED, NBER.<\/em><\/p>\n Figure 4:<\/strong>\u00a0Civilian employment over age 16 (blue, left log scale), nonfarm payroll employment (tan, right log scale), both in 1000\u2019s, seasonally adjusted, both as of 2\/1\/2008. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via ALFRED, NBER.<\/em><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/compare_ces_cps_2025.png\")
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