{"id":345386,"date":"2025-07-03T13:40:30","date_gmt":"2025-07-03T18:40:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/03\/private-nfp-downside-surprise-econbrowser\/"},"modified":"2025-07-03T13:40:30","modified_gmt":"2025-07-03T18:40:30","slug":"private-nfp-downside-surprise-econbrowser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/03\/private-nfp-downside-surprise-econbrowser\/","title":{"rendered":"Private NFP Downside Surprise | Econbrowser"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-57087\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>+74K vs. +110K Bloomberg consensus. My nowcast based on ADP suggested +66K.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/usprivpix1-1.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-57088\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/usprivpix1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"878\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/usprivpix1-1.png 878w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/usprivpix1-1-300x192.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/usprivpix1-1-768x491.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/usprivpix1-1-624x399.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 878px) 100vw, 878px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> Private NFP, May release (black), June release (red), nowcast using ADP (light blue square), +\/- 1 standard error (gray +). Source: BLS, author\u2019s calculations (see text).<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/07\/private-nfp-downside-surprise\" title=\"9:55 am\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2025-07-03T09:55:59-07:00\">July 3, 2025<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/07\/private-nfp-downside-surprise\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] +74K vs. +110K Bloomberg consensus. My nowcast based on ADP suggested +66K. Figure 1: Private NFP, May release (black), June release (red), nowcast using<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":345387,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/345386"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=345386"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/345386\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/345387"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=345386"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=345386"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=345386"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}