{"id":345216,"date":"2025-06-27T12:50:56","date_gmt":"2025-06-27T17:50:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/27\/gdp-nowcast-dispersion-plus-slowing-final-sales-to-private-domestic-purchasers\/"},"modified":"2025-06-27T12:50:56","modified_gmt":"2025-06-27T17:50:56","slug":"gdp-nowcast-dispersion-plus-slowing-final-sales-to-private-domestic-purchasers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/27\/gdp-nowcast-dispersion-plus-slowing-final-sales-to-private-domestic-purchasers\/","title":{"rendered":"GDP Nowcast Dispersion plus Slowing Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>From GDP Q1 3rd release and nowcasts plus tracking. GDPNow is down on personal income and spending release, advanced economic indicators, as well as the Q1 3rd release.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/gdppix56.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-57020\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/gdppix56.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1022\" height=\"576\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/gdppix56.png 1022w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/gdppix56-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/gdppix56-768x433.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/gdppix56-624x352.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1022px) 100vw, 1022px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (bold black), May SPF median (tan line), GDPNow (sky blue square), Goldman Sachs (blue square), NY Fed (green triangle), St. Louis News nowcast (inverted red triangle), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Source: BEA 2025Q1 3rd release, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs, NY Fed, St. Louis Fed, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Given the distortions attendant with tariff front-loading and inventory tracking, it pays to think about aggregate demand (in principle measured by final sales), or trend aggregate demand (in principle measured sales to domestic purchasers, so consumption and fixed investment. This is shown in Figure 2, along with nowcast from GDPNow and Goldman Sachs tracking.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/finsalesprivdompix1.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-57021\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/finsalesprivdompix1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1022\" height=\"576\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/finsalesprivdompix1.png 1022w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/finsalesprivdompix1-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/finsalesprivdompix1-768x433.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/finsalesprivdompix1-624x352.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1022px) 100vw, 1022px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 2:<\/strong> Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), May SPF median (tan line), GDPNow (sky blue square), Goldman Sachs (blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Source: BEA 2025Q1 3rd release, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Clearly, there is deceleration in this measure, and nowcasted slowing. Interestingly, Goldman Sachs thinks final sales to private domestic purchasers will be flat this quarter.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/06\/gdp-nowcast-dispersion-plus-slowing-final-sales-to-private-domestic-purchasers\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] From GDP Q1 3rd release and nowcasts plus tracking. GDPNow is down on personal income and spending release, advanced economic indicators, as well as<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":345217,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/345216"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=345216"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/345216\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/345217"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=345216"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=345216"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=345216"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}