Part 2<\/a> was during the last Trump administration. Some things never change.<\/p>\n From Richard Rubin in today\u2019s WSJ<\/a>:<\/p>\n Swagel, a mild-mannered academic economist, runs the Congressional Budget Office, the fiscal scorekeeping agency getting blasted by Republicans as they try to push their tax-and-spending megabill through Congress by July 4. They say CBO is too pessimistic on economic growth and tilts against Republicans, unfairly fueling charges that the measure is fiscally irresponsible.<\/p>\n This week alone, President Trump called CBO a \u201cvery hostile\u201d organization run by Democrats after it said the bill would increase deficits by $2.4 trillion through 2034. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R., La.) described CBO as \u201ca referee that tries to sack our quarterback.\u201d Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) said CBO has \u201ca long history of just being flat wrong,\u201d including economic growth projections after the 2017 tax cuts.<\/p>\n \u2026<\/p>\n What CBO is doing is what it is supposed to do, said Swagel, in his first direct response to GOP criticisms. The agency measures proposals using methods required by Congress. It isn\u2019t advocating for or against any policy. It is leaving most tax analysis to the Joint Committee on Taxation, Congress\u2019s lesser-known scorekeeper. CBO\u2019s post-2017 forecasts were correct, Swagel says. And, by the way, he\u2019s a Republican.<\/p>\n Swagel worked in the Treasury Department under President George W. Bush and says his history in Republican circles helps him understand CBO\u2019s critics.<\/p>\n \u201cMy politics have always been, you know, an inch to the right of center,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd I don\u2019t think I\u2019ve moved half an inch in either direction.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n I can say without reservation that Dr. Swagel is doing his best (as did previous directors) ensure that CBO provides the projections and estimates that represent the mainstream economic thinking and accounting. In terms of counting up the estimated deficit impact, is CBO way out of line? Fortunately, J. Capretta at AEI<\/a> has compiled a recent (June 4) comparison:<\/p>\n Source:<\/strong> Capretta\/AEI, June 4, 2025<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n Notes:<\/strong> CBO\/JCT is Congressional Budget Office\/Joint Committee on Taxation, PWBM is Penn Wharton Budget Model, TBL is the Yale Budget Lab, TF is the Tax Foundation.<\/em><\/p>\n If you can a drastically different tabulation from CBO\/JCT vs. the others, tell me. By the way, I notice the critics these days are jumping on CBO, and less so on JCT (which is appointed by \u2026 Congress).<\/p>\n I always find it instructive to see who attacks the beancounters. As noted in Part 2, Gingrich in the past, Mulvaney more recently. Stephen Moore<\/a> (MA economics, GMU) jumped in recently. In the WSJ article<\/a> the critics include:<\/p>\n Full disclosure:<\/strong> I worked with Dr. Swagel at CEA, when we were both senior economists under Clinton, GW Bush. I was a visiting fellow at CBO in 2005, prior to Swagel\u2019s appointment to CBO.<\/small><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n
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