{"id":277853,"date":"2025-06-04T17:15:23","date_gmt":"2025-06-04T17:15:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/04\/gdpnow-bounceback-kind-of-econbrowser\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:08:11","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:08:11","slug":"gdpnow-bounceback-kind-of-econbrowser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/04\/gdpnow-bounceback-kind-of-econbrowser\/","title":{"rendered":"GDPNow Bounceback (Kind of) | Econbrowser"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Atlanta Fed nowcast shows 4.6% q\/q AR growth in GDP. Interestingly, this does not take GDP back to pre-\u201cLiberation Day\u201d trend.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (black, left log scale), May SPF forecast (tan, left log scale), GDPNow of 6\/2 (light blue square, left log square), Goldman Sachs of 6\/3 (inverted red triangle, left log scale), final sales to domestic private purchasers (light blue square, right log scale), (inverted red triangle, right log scale), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2025Q1 second release, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs, and author\u2019s calculations).<\/em><\/p>\n

Note Goldman Sachs is somewhat more pessimistic, particularly with respect to \u201ccore GDP\u201d (final sales to private domestic purchases).<\/p>\n

Even with the upgrade, the Atlanta Fed nowcast for equipment investment \u2014 which one would think would be very sensitive to uncertainty in general \u2014 has decelerated substantially.<\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong> Trade Policy Uncertainty (light blue, left scale), equipment investment (bold black, right log scale), bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Source: Iacoviello, BEA 2025Q1 second release.<\/em><\/p>\n

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[ad_1] Atlanta Fed nowcast shows 4.6% q\/q AR growth in GDP. Interestingly, this does not take GDP back to pre-\u201cLiberation Day\u201d trend. Figure 1: GDP<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":277854,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/277853"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=277853"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/277853\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/277854"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=277853"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=277853"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=277853"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}