At least it\u2019s mercifully less than the 4% that he promised last time (but 9% is<\/em><\/strong> more than last time)<\/p>\n This is what 3% looks like:<\/p>\n Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (black), CBO (light blue), Troika inferred from Trump remarks at 3% (red squares), and May Survey of Professional Forecasters median (tan), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2025Q1 second release, CBO (January 2025), TruthSocial post of 30 May 2025<\/a>, Philadelphia Fed (May 2025), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Here\u2019s a picture of last time Trump promised something about growth (incorporating TCJA):<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong>\u00a0GDP (black), CBO (light blue), Troika\/Administration (red square), Donald Trump (orange inverted triangle), all in bn.Ch.2009$ SAAR. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, CBO (April 2018), Economic Report of the President, 2018,\u00a0CNBC<\/a>, NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/DJT_post_30may25.png\")
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