Consumption level is revised downward, while personal income ex transfers continues to rise. Manufacturing and trade sales rise in March. First is a picture of key variables followed by the NBER\u2019s BCDC:<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong> Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment using smoothed population controls (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. 2025Q1 GDP is advance release. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA, S&P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (5\/1\/<\/em>2025 release), and author\u2019s calculations.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n Excepting official GDP (which due to trade-related distortions should be downweighted) and industrial production, most measures suggest continued growth through April<\/strong><\/em> (for May<\/strong><\/em>, see high frequency indicators discussed here<\/a>).<\/p>\n Alternative indicators also suggest continued expansion through April.<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong> Preliminary Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), real retail sales (black), vehicle miles traveled (tan), and coincident index in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: Philadelphia Fed [1]<\/a>,\u00a0Philadelphia Fed [2]<\/a>, Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2025Q1 secondi release,<\/em>\u00a0and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/recindic_may25correct.png\")
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