Mr. Moore continues his reign of (economic) errors, now tackling the CBO\u2019s (and JCT\u2019s) record on predictions, in \u201cSave us from the CBO\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n \u2026Mr. Hassett uncovered an issue that has swerved Washington into bad policy for decades.<\/p>\n The most powerful forces on Capitol Hill aren\u2019t the House speaker and Senate majority leader, they\u2019re the CBO and JCT. These two unelected bodies forecast how legislation could change spending and revenue over the next decade. Too often, these predictions are wildly off base.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Before turning to the substance of his allegations, it\u2019s useful to remember that Mr. Moore (he doesn\u2019t have a Ph.D., I suspect he\u2019s never been to the modest office of the CBO) has made the following assertions.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Stephen Moore Lies and Lies and Lies (and Hence Belongs in the Trump NEC)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Polling Data Analysis with Stephen Moore<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Stephen Moore: \u201cWhen It Comes To Electric Power, Coal Is No. 1\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Stephen Moore\u2019s Analysis of Income Taxes and Employment Growth<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Further Documentation on \u201cStephen Moore Is a Liar\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Stephen Moore Is a Liar, Part 2<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Stephen Moore Is a Liar<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n CNN: Fire this Buffoon<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Homosocial Reproduction and Economic Policy Formulation in the White House<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n \u201cTooth Fairies and Ludicrous Supply-Side Economics\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n All the Governor\u2019s Men (Economists)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n State Employment Trends: Does a Low Tax\/Right-to-Work\/Low Minimum Wage Regime Correlate to Growth?<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n Back to projections. As far as I know, I have a JCT (not CBO, although reported in a CBO document) estimate of deviations from baseline:<\/p>\n I don\u2019t know in what way Mr. Moore knows CBO\u2019s estimate of \u201cfiscal effects\u201d is understated, as he doesn\u2019t cite a study, does not show a calculation, and does not indicate whether the underestimate is over a 5 year or 10 year horizon. There is an evaluation of Administration vs. CBO revenue projections<\/a>, which did not show a serious deficiency of the CBO revenue estimates in FY2018-2019. Hence, given Mr. Moore\u2019s penchant for data errors, I would be wary of taking his assertions at face value.<\/p>\n I do<\/em><\/strong> know that CBO projections of nominal and real GDP and inflation are comparable to those of the Blue Chip forecasts, and slightly less than that of administration, over decades (see this 2023 CBO assessment<\/a>).<\/p>\n Here\u2019s CBO vs. Trump administration (incorporating JCTA).<\/p>\n Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (black), CBO (light blue), Troika\/Administration (red square), Donald Trump (orange inverted triangle), all in bn.Ch.2009$ SAAR. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, CBO (April 2018), Economic Report of the President, 2018, CNBC<\/a>, NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n
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Source:<\/b>\u00a0JCT (November 30, 2017)<\/a>.<\/small><\/em><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/gdpcbotroikaactual.png\")
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