{"id":276479,"date":"2025-05-15T20:51:21","date_gmt":"2025-05-15T20:51:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/15\/business-cycle-indicators-as-of-mid-may-manufacturing-contracts-in-liberation-month\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:08:27","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:08:27","slug":"business-cycle-indicators-as-of-mid-may-manufacturing-contracts-in-liberation-month","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/15\/business-cycle-indicators-as-of-mid-may-manufacturing-contracts-in-liberation-month\/","title":{"rendered":"Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-May; Manufacturing Contracts in \u201cLiberation\u201d Month"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-56622\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>Industrial and manufacturing production downside surprises.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/recindic_apr25d.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-56623\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/recindic_apr25d.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"835\" height=\"532\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/recindic_apr25d.png 835w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/recindic_apr25d-300x191.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/recindic_apr25d-768x489.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/recindic_apr25d-624x398.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 835px) 100vw, 835px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong>\u00a0Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (bold blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark through December (thin blue), civilian employment as reported (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. 2025Q1 GDP is advance release. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/marketintelligence\/en\/mi\/research-analysis\/us-monthly-gdp-index-for-october-2022.html\">S&amp;P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (5\/1\/<\/em><em>2025 release), and author\u2019s calculations.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Manufacturing index down -0.4% m\/m, compared to -0.2% consensus.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/mfg_short6.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-56624\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/mfg_short6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"878\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/mfg_short6.png 878w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/mfg_short6-300x192.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/mfg_short6-768x491.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/mfg_short6-624x399.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 878px) 100vw, 878px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 2:<\/strong> Manufacturing production (blue), value added in 2017$ (red), production and nonsupervisory worker employment (tan), hours (light green) all in logs, 2024M04=0; and capacity utilization (NAICS), % (black, right scale). Aggregate hours of production workers calculated by multiplying average weekly hours by employees. Source: Federal Reserve, BEA, BLS, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/05\/business-cycle-indicators-as-of-mid-may-manufacturing-contracts-in-liberation-month\" title=\"12:09 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2025-05-15T12:09:18-07:00\">May 15, 2025<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/05\/business-cycle-indicators-as-of-mid-may-manufacturing-contracts-in-liberation-month\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Industrial and manufacturing production downside surprises. Figure 1:\u00a0Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (bold blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark through December<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":276480,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/276479"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=276479"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/276479\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/276480"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=276479"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=276479"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=276479"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}