GDPNow at -1.5% q\/q AR. But final sales to domestic purchasers little changed.<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong> GDPNow of 4\/29 (blue square), Goldman Sachs tracking of 4\/29 (red triangle), Wall Street Journal mean survey (tan line). Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n With one day left to Q1 release, GDPNow should be pretty close to advance, given historical records. GDP is nowcasted to be growing below the lowest (20% trimmed) April WSJ forecast (Carlton Strong\/JPMorgan), and only above 4 out of 62 forecasts.<\/p>\n Note that final domestic purchasers (cited by Jason Furman as \u201ccore GDP\u201d<\/a>) is still nowcasted to rise, little changed from the April 24th post<\/a>.<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong> Final sales to private domestic purchasers (black), and GDPNow of 4\/19 (light blue square). Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Since this series is plotted on a log scale, final sales to private domestic purchasers is only decelerating from 2.9% q\/q AR to 2% q\/q AR (log changes).<\/p>\n With respect to economic sentiment, the Conference Board\u2019s Consumer Confidence Index collapsed to below consensus (86.0 vs. consensus 87.7).<\/p>\n Figure 3:<\/strong>\u00a0U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Source: UMichigan, Gallup,\u00a0Conference Board<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n The confidence index was driven by the rapid descent in the expectations component:<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdppix52.png\")
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