{"id":275153,"date":"2025-04-29T06:52:59","date_gmt":"2025-04-29T06:52:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/29\/a-timeline-for-recession-econbrowser\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:08:43","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:08:43","slug":"a-timeline-for-recession-econbrowser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/29\/a-timeline-for-recession-econbrowser\/","title":{"rendered":"A Timeline for Recession? | Econbrowser"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Torsten Slok\u2019s VTRR (Voluntary Trade Reset Recession):<\/p>\n

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Source:<\/strong> Slok\/Apollo.<\/em><\/p>\n

Torsten appends a 90% probability to recession. This is a conditional forecast (the tariffs stay in place). When the store shelves are empty, that\u2019s when the collapse begins in this scenario.<\/p>\n

Betting markets place 49% on 2025H1 for a recession start, a bit earlier than Slok\u2019s guess.<\/p>\n

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I thought it would be useful to show the range of survey responses on the question of GDP growth, and how they match with two forecasts, and several nowcasts.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (bold black), GDPNow adjusted for gold imports, 4\/24 (light blue square), GS, 4\/24 (red triangle)), Wells Fargo, 4\/25 (pink +), NY Fed, 4\/25 (purple square), St. Louis Fed, 4\/25 (red circle), IMF April WEO forecast (inverted blue triangle), Dynan\/PIIE forecast of April 15th (teal), WSJ April survey mean (tan line), 20% trimmed low\/high (gray lines), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, NY Fed, St. Louis Fed, IMF (April WEO), PIIE, WSJ April survey, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

The bottom WSJ forecast is Carlton Strong\/JP Morgan.<\/p>\n

I will say that all these forecasts predate the President\u2019s new executive order requiring all truckers to pass a English literacy test. I would think this would accelerate the onset of shortages.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[ad_1] Torsten Slok\u2019s VTRR (Voluntary Trade Reset Recession): Source: Slok\/Apollo. Torsten appends a 90% probability to recession. This is a conditional forecast (the tariffs stay<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":275154,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/275153"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=275153"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/275153\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/275154"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=275153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=275153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=275153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}