Goldman Sachs puts Q1 growth at 0.1% q\/q AR close to adjusted GDPNow, while NY Fed indicates 2.58%. The St. Louis Fed \u201cnews\u201d index stands at 2.83%.<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (bold black), GDPNow of 4\/17 (teal open inverted triangle), NY Fed of 4\/18 (red *), Goldman Sachs tracking of 4\/23 (pink square), IMF WEO of April (blue square), WSJ April survey mean (bold red line), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2024Q4 3rd release, Atlanta, NY Fed, IMF WEO, WSJ economic survey, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n GS and GDPNow stand apart from NY Fed and St. Louis Fed nowcasts. I don\u2019t have a complete explanation why this is the case, although I suspect that it has to do with the top down approach of the NY Fed nowcast having a hard time accounting for the import surge caused by the front-running of tariffs. Jim Hamilton gave a rundown of the basic differences between the NY Fed and Atlanta Fed nowcasts here<\/a>. The NY Fed is a top down nowcast, while the Atlanta Fed is a bottom up nowcast, building up from NIPA components (consumption, investment components, government spending, exports, imports, inventory accumulation).<\/p>\n Here\u2019s the gold-adjusted NIPA imports. Notice the jump in nowcasted 2025Q1.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdppix47.png\")
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