{"id":274250,"date":"2025-04-16T16:19:37","date_gmt":"2025-04-16T16:19:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/16\/what-soaring-uncertainty-means-for-the-u-s-economy\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:08:50","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:08:50","slug":"what-soaring-uncertainty-means-for-the-u-s-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/16\/what-soaring-uncertainty-means-for-the-u-s-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cWhat soaring uncertainty means for the U.S. economy\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

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From Cui, NBC<\/a>:<\/p>\n

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President Donald Trump\u2019s tariff agenda<\/a>\u00a0has thrown the financial world for a loop\u00a0for much of the past month<\/a>. The\u00a0on-again<\/a>,\u00a0off-again<\/a>\u00a0trade escalation with other nations \u2014\u00a0most notably China \u2014\u00a0has\u00a0upended markets<\/a>\u00a0with\u00a0investors fleeing U.S. stocks in search of more stable ground<\/a>.\u00a0 And as experts and business leaders say the lack of clarity around the tariffs is every bit a challenge as the levies themselves, data shows economic uncertainty is the highest it has been in years.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

As the St. Louis Fed\u2019s Kevin Kliesen noted about the EPU:<\/p>\n

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\u201cIt\u2019s a historically unprecedented increase,\u201d\u00a0Kliesen<\/a>\u00a0said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

To highlight the unprecedented nature of policy uncertainty, as well as financial risk, here\u2019s the Baker, Bloom and Davis EPU (7 day centered moving average) over 40 years, and the VIX over 35.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> EPU, 7 day centered moving average (blue, left scale), and VIX (right scale). Orange denotes Trump Administrations. Source: policyuncertainty.com and CBOE via FRED.<\/em><\/p>\n

This post<\/a> highlights econometric estimates of the macro implications of elevated EPU and VIX.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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