The GDP outlook is down markedly. I was insufficiently pessimistic (relative to WSJ survey respondents) regarding the GDP outlook.<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (bold black), WSJ January survey mean (blue), WSJ April survey mean (tan), GDPNow of 4\/9 (sky blue square), Chinn forecast for FT-Booth March survey (red square), all in billions Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2024Q4 3rd release, WSJ surveys.<\/em><\/p>\n There is a wide range of outcomes predicted for Q3 and Q4, in terms of output levels. While the mean trajectory is positive, the trimmed 20% band\u00a0 includes two quarters of negative growth (Carlton Strong\/JP Morgan).<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong> GDP (bold black), WSJ January survey mean (blue), WSJ April survey mean (tan), 20% trimmed high (Sean Snaith\/U.Central Florida), low (Carlton Strong\/JP Morgan) (gray lines), GDPNow of 4\/9 (sky blue square), Chinn forecast for FT-Booth March survey (red square), all in billions Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2024Q4 3rd release, WSJ April survey.<\/em><\/p>\n In point of fact, there are 13 respondents predicting two or more quarters of consecutive negative GDP growth. Of course, two consecutive quarters of negative growth does\u00a0 not officially define a recession; rather the NBER\u2019s Business Cycle Dating Committee has greatest claim to defining recessions.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdppix44.png\")
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