{"id":273927,"date":"2025-04-11T20:55:11","date_gmt":"2025-04-11T20:55:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/11\/is-the-michigan-survey-a-fluke-are-republicans-still-optimistic-do-republicans-see-inflation-rising\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:08:53","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:08:53","slug":"is-the-michigan-survey-a-fluke-are-republicans-still-optimistic-do-republicans-see-inflation-rising","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/11\/is-the-michigan-survey-a-fluke-are-republicans-still-optimistic-do-republicans-see-inflation-rising\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the Michigan Survey a Fluke? Are Republicans Still Optimistic? Do Republicans See Inflation Rising?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-56342\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>No. Yes\/No. Yes.<\/p>\n<p>Compare the U.Michigan survey to SF News Sentiment index and Conference Board:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/sent_conf_newssentstd1.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-56343\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/sent_conf_newssentstd1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"835\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/sent_conf_newssentstd1.png 835w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/sent_conf_newssentstd1-300x202.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/sent_conf_newssentstd1-768x516.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/sent_conf_newssentstd1-624x419.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 835px) 100vw, 835px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), SF Fed News Sentiment index (light green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. April U.Mich. observation is preliminary; April SF Fed News Sentiment Index for data through April 6. Source:<a href=\"https:\/\/data.sca.isr.umich.edu\/\"> U.Michigan<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conference-board.org\/topics\/consumer-confidence\">Conference Board<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.frbsf.org\/research-and-insights\/data-and-indicators\/daily-news-sentiment-index\/\">SF Fed<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Despite the 21 point drop from February peak, Republicans still view the outlook more favorably than they did in October (25.9 pts). On the other hand, Democrats have evidenced a sharp drop relative to October (65.2 pts), as have Independents (24.8).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/sentiment_expect1a.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-56345\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/sentiment_expect1a.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"849\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/sentiment_expect1a.png 849w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/sentiment_expect1a-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/sentiment_expect1a-768x507.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/sentiment_expect1a-624x412.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 849px) 100vw, 849px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 2:<\/strong> U.Michigan Consumer Expectations overall (bold black), for Democrats (light blue), from Republicans (red). April observations are preliminary. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/data.sca.isr.umich.edu\/\">U.Michigan<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>What about the split in inflation expectations. I pull a graph from the <a href=\"https:\/\/data.sca.isr.umich.edu\/fetchdoc.php?docid=78393\">report<\/a> released today:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/umich_partisanreport_11apr25.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-56346\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/umich_partisanreport_11apr25.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1200\" height=\"431\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/umich_partisanreport_11apr25.png 1200w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/umich_partisanreport_11apr25-300x108.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/umich_partisanreport_11apr25-1024x368.png 1024w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/umich_partisanreport_11apr25-768x276.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/umich_partisanreport_11apr25-624x224.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/data.sca.isr.umich.edu\/fetchdoc.php?docid=78393\">U.Michigan Survey of Consumers, 11 April 2025<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Inflation expectations have risen across the board (with Republicans rising from 0%(!!!) at the one year horizon.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/04\/is-the-michigan-survey-a-fluke-are-republicans-still-optimistic-do-republicans-see-inflation-rising\" title=\"12:48 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2025-04-11T12:48:05-07:00\">April 11, 2025<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/04\/is-the-michigan-survey-a-fluke-are-republicans-still-optimistic-do-republicans-see-inflation-rising\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] No. Yes\/No. Yes. Compare the U.Michigan survey to SF News Sentiment index and Conference Board: Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":273928,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273927"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=273927"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273927\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/273928"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=273927"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=273927"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=273927"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}