{"id":273827,"date":"2025-04-10T19:11:51","date_gmt":"2025-04-10T19:11:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/10\/recession-odds-econbrowser\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:08:54","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:08:54","slug":"recession-odds-econbrowser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/10\/recession-odds-econbrowser\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cRecession\u201d Odds | Econbrowser"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-56323\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>Two observations: (1) market odds of a downturn have rebounded today, and (2) the odds are very similar across two platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket), despite the fact t<strong><em>he definitions of recession are different in the two markets.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalshi_recession_10apr25.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-56325\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalshi_recession_10apr25.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"619\" height=\"491\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalshi_recession_10apr25.png 508w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalshi_recession_10apr25-300x238.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 619px) 100vw, 619px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/polymkt_recession_10apr25.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-56324\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/polymkt_recession_10apr25.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"621\" height=\"417\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/polymkt_recession_10apr25.png 621w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/polymkt_recession_10apr25-300x201.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 621px) 100vw, 621px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Polymarket pays if either NBER declares a peak, or two consecutive quarters of negative growth in 2025, while Kalshi pays if there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025.<\/p>\n<p>If bettors are arbitraging between the two markets, I wonder if they understand the distinction between the two payout conditions.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/04\/recession-odds\" title=\"11:12 am\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2025-04-10T11:12:10-07:00\">April 10, 2025<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/04\/recession-odds\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Two observations: (1) market odds of a downturn have rebounded today, and (2) the odds are very similar across two platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket), despite<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":273828,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273827"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=273827"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273827\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/273828"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=273827"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=273827"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=273827"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}