{"id":273786,"date":"2025-04-10T12:00:08","date_gmt":"2025-04-10T12:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/10\/did-trump-blink-econbrowser\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:08:54","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:08:54","slug":"did-trump-blink-econbrowser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/10\/did-trump-blink-econbrowser\/","title":{"rendered":"Did Trump Blink? | Econbrowser"},"content":{"rendered":"

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I see repeated references to this assertion. As Jason Furman<\/a> points out, relative to \u201cLiberation Day\u201d announcement, he didn\u2019t, insofar as the increase in tariffs on Chinese goods rose from 54% to 125% even as reciprocal tariffs were delayed 90 days, thus pushing up the effective tariff rate (with no quantity response) to essentially where it was going to.<\/p>\n

I guess in the sense that Mr. Trump seems to want to add on additional tariffs on the merest of whims, he did blink. Kind of.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a picture of the effective tariff rate, assuming Chinese imports into the US are halved by the 125% tariffs.<\/p>\n

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By the way, after looking at the USTR\u2019s (?) formula<\/a> ,<\/p>\n

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I gotta say the stupidity amazes even a jaded person like me. No wonder no one wants to take credit\/blame for it.<\/p>\n

Corinth and Veuger (AEI)<\/a> have a concise takedown of the formula\u2019s issues. Many have pointed out that bilateral zero balances make no sense. I want to go beyond that to say even an aggregate zero balance (on the current account, numerically roughly equal to the trade balance) makes no sense. Essentially that rules out intertemporal trade, which as shown below is Pareto inferior to free trade.<\/p>\n

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(This equilibrium is by the way the basis for the Coalition for a Prosperous America\u2019s calculation of \u201cfair exchange rates\u201d, as discussed in this post<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

Finally, I am curious where CEA is. CEA\u2019s role has been to \u201ckill bad ideas\u201d; and there have been plenty of bad ideas \u2014 trade-wise \u2014 floating around Washington DC for as long as I can remember. Maybe they\u2019re fighting the good fight behind the scenes; if so, good for them.<\/p>\n

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[ad_1] I see repeated references to this assertion. As Jason Furman points out, relative to \u201cLiberation Day\u201d announcement, he didn\u2019t, insofar as the increase in<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":273787,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273786"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=273786"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273786\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/273787"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=273786"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=273786"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=273786"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}