{"id":273748,"date":"2025-04-09T23:35:07","date_gmt":"2025-04-09T23:35:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/09\/alternative-business-cycle-indicators-coincident-index-vmt-early-benchmark-nfp\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:08:55","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:08:55","slug":"alternative-business-cycle-indicators-coincident-index-vmt-early-benchmark-nfp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/09\/alternative-business-cycle-indicators-coincident-index-vmt-early-benchmark-nfp\/","title":{"rendered":"Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: Coincident Index, VMT, Early Benchmark NFP"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-56304\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>Coincident index growth slows from 4.1% m\/m AR to 1.7% in February.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/recindic_mar25alt.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-56305\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/recindic_mar25alt.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"835\" height=\"532\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/recindic_mar25alt.png 835w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/recindic_mar25alt-300x191.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/recindic_mar25alt-768x489.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/recindic_mar25alt-624x398.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 835px) 100vw, 835px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> Implied Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted smoothed population controls (bold orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), real retail sales (black), vehicle miles traveled (tan), and coincident index in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.philadelphiafed.org\/surveys-and-data\/regional-economic-analysis\/early-benchmark-revisions\">Philadelphia Fed [1]<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.philadelphiafed.org\/surveys-and-data\/regional-economic-analysis\/state-coincident-indexes\">Philadelphia Fed [2]<\/a>, Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2024Q4 3rd release,<\/em><em>\u00a0and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>No apparent recession start as of February preliminary data, but retail sales look somewhat pessimistic.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/04\/alternative-business-cycle-indicators-coincident-index-vmt-early-benchmark-nfp\" title=\"3:28 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2025-04-09T15:28:04-07:00\">April 9, 2025<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/04\/alternative-business-cycle-indicators-coincident-index-vmt-early-benchmark-nfp\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Coincident index growth slows from 4.1% m\/m AR to 1.7% in February. Figure 1: Implied Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":273749,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273748"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=273748"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273748\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/273749"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=273748"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=273748"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=273748"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}