{"id":273742,"date":"2025-04-09T22:32:01","date_gmt":"2025-04-09T22:32:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/09\/the-recession-start-predicted-post-pause\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:08:55","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:08:55","slug":"the-recession-start-predicted-post-pause","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/09\/the-recession-start-predicted-post-pause\/","title":{"rendered":"The Recession Start Predicted (Post-Pause)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-56298\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>While the odds on a recession in 2025 have dropped from 69% to 54% in the wake of Trump\u2019s 90 day pause, the predicted start of the recession has not changed much.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalshi_recessionstart_9apr25.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-56299\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalshi_recessionstart_9apr25.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"524\" height=\"397\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalshi_recessionstart_9apr25.png 524w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalshi_recessionstart_9apr25-300x227.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 524px) 100vw, 524px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>A 52% probability is ascribed to a recession starting in 2025H1.<\/p>\n<p>The lack of a change with the announcement is perhaps less surprising when one considers that the combination of 10% broad tariffs and a 105% tariff on China yields effective tariff rates roughly the same as 10% tariffs with reciprocal tariffs.<\/p>\n<p>I think it quite interesting that 29% odds on a recession having *last* quarter (as we\u2019re in Q2).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/04\/the-recession-start-predicted-post-pause\" title=\"2:33 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2025-04-09T14:33:23-07:00\">April 9, 2025<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/04\/the-recession-start-predicted-post-pause\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] While the odds on a recession in 2025 have dropped from 69% to 54% in the wake of Trump\u2019s 90 day pause, the predicted<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":273743,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273742"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=273742"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273742\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/273743"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=273742"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=273742"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=273742"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}