{"id":273490,"date":"2025-04-06T19:01:51","date_gmt":"2025-04-06T19:01:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/06\/near-horizon-recession-probability-estimate-for-april-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:08:57","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:08:57","slug":"near-horizon-recession-probability-estimate-for-april-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/06\/near-horizon-recession-probability-estimate-for-april-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Near-Horizon Recession Probability: Estimate for April 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-56252\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>Using data through March.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/recprob1moahd_mar25.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-56253\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/recprob1moahd_mar25.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"820\" height=\"532\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/recprob1moahd_mar25.png 820w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/recprob1moahd_mar25-300x195.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/recprob1moahd_mar25-768x498.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/recprob1moahd_mar25-624x405.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Figure 1: Recession probability 1 month ahead (blue). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Assumes no recession in March. Source: Author\u2019s calculations.<\/p>\n<p>Pseudo R2 from probit regression of recession on y\/y change in Michigan sentiment and 1yr-FFR spread estimated 1986 through 2025M03 is 0.38.<\/p>\n<p>Cautionary note: One false positive in 2022M07.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/04\/near-horizon-recession-probability-2\" title=\"11:04 am\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2025-04-06T11:04:42-07:00\">April 6, 2025<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/04\/near-horizon-recession-probability-2\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Using data through March. Figure 1: Recession probability 1 month ahead (blue). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Assumes no recession in March.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":273491,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273490"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=273490"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273490\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/273491"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=273490"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=273490"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=273490"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}