{"id":273377,"date":"2025-04-04T19:47:23","date_gmt":"2025-04-04T19:47:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/04\/has-the-recession-already-started\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:08:58","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:08:58","slug":"has-the-recession-already-started","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/04\/has-the-recession-already-started\/","title":{"rendered":"Has the Recession Already Started?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-56228\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>Even if the answer is yes, we won\u2019t know for a long time.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s the odds on the recession start, with Q1 at 19%, same for Q2:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalshi_recessionstart_4apr25_2et.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-56229\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalshi_recessionstart_4apr25_2et.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"535\" height=\"422\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalshi_recessionstart_4apr25_2et.png 535w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalshi_recessionstart_4apr25_2et-300x237.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 535px) 100vw, 535px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Combining with the probability of recession in 2025:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalshi_recession_4apr252et.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-56230\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalshi_recession_4apr252et.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"530\" height=\"412\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalshi_recession_4apr252et.png 530w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalshi_recession_4apr252et-300x233.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 530px) 100vw, 530px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Between the two sets of betting odds, a recession start in Q4 has 11% probability.<\/p>\n<p>Note we only have preliminary employment numbers for March, and non for other key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC. On the basis of those numbers, NBER BCDC would be unlikely to start date to March (although March could still be a \u201cpeak\u201d month in the NBER chronology).<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/04\/has-the-recession-already-started\" title=\"11:47 am\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2025-04-04T11:47:35-07:00\">April 4, 2025<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/04\/has-the-recession-already-started\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Even if the answer is yes, we won\u2019t know for a long time. Here\u2019s the odds on the recession start, with Q1 at 19%,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":273378,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273377"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=273377"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273377\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/273378"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=273377"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=273377"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=273377"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}