{"id":273193,"date":"2025-04-01T21:56:37","date_gmt":"2025-04-01T21:56:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/01\/negative-gdp-growth-in-q1\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:00","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:00","slug":"negative-gdp-growth-in-q1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/01\/negative-gdp-growth-in-q1\/","title":{"rendered":"Negative GDP Growth in Q1?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-56200\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlantafed.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow\">GDPNow<\/a> as of today:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdpnow-forecast-evolution_1apr25.gif\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-56201\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdpnow-forecast-evolution_1apr25.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"650\" height=\"452\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s a picture of the level of GDP implied by these nowcasts and tracking forecasts.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdppix43.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-56202\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdppix43.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1022\" height=\"576\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdppix43.png 1022w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdppix43-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdppix43-768x433.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gdppix43-624x352.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1022px) 100vw, 1022px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (black), GDPNow of 4\/1 (red triangle), GDPNow adjusted for gold imports\u00a0 (pink square), NY Fed (blue square), Goldman Sachs (inverted green triangle), Survey of Professional Forecasters (light blue), all in billion Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/pulse\/gdp-forecasters-some-gold-doesnt-glitter-atlantafed-fxb2e\/\">\u00a0Atlanta Fed<\/a>, Philadelphia Fed, NY Fed, Goldman Sachs and authors calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Betting is now for 0% growth in Q1.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalsh_gdpq1_1apr25340ct.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-56205\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalsh_gdpq1_1apr25340ct.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"534\" height=\"406\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalsh_gdpq1_1apr25340ct.png 534w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalsh_gdpq1_1apr25340ct-300x228.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 534px) 100vw, 534px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>As noted on numerous occasions, GDP is not a primary input into the NBER\u2019s decisions regarding recession dates. However, this graph on odds is of interest.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalshi_1apr25_340ct.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-56206\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalshi_1apr25_340ct.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"570\" height=\"437\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalshi_1apr25_340ct.png 570w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/kalshi_1apr25_340ct-300x230.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 570px) 100vw, 570px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/04\/negative-gdp-growth-in-q1\" title=\"1:35 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2025-04-01T13:35:55-07:00\">April 1, 2025<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/04\/negative-gdp-growth-in-q1\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] GDPNow as of today: \u00a0 Here\u2019s a picture of the level of GDP implied by these nowcasts and tracking forecasts. Figure 1: GDP (black),<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":273194,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273193"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=273193"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273193\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/273194"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=273193"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=273193"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=273193"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}