Following a sharp multi-week selloff that dragged Bitcoin from above $100,000 to below $80,000, the recent price bounce has traders debating whether the Bitcoin bull market is truly back on track or if this is merely a bear market rally before the next macro leg higher.<\/p>\n
Bitcoin\u2019s Local Bottom or Bull Market Pause?<\/strong><\/h3>\nBitcoin\u2019s latest correction was deep enough to rattle confidence, but shallow enough to maintain macro trend structure. Price<\/a> seems to have set a local bottom between $76K\u2013$77K, and several reliable metrics are beginning to solidify the local lows and point towards further upside.<\/p>\nThe Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL)<\/a> is one of the most reliable sentiment gauges across Bitcoin cycles. As price fell, NUPL dropped into \u201cAnxiety\u201d territory, but following the rebound, NUPL has now reclaimed the \u201cBelief\u201d zone, a critical sentiment transition historically seen at macro higher lows.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com\/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp\/assets\/images\/optimized\/rev-e9e27c1\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/AD_4nXeVmaCDOfMXczODzMC4GbzjvyDLW1EI6WciO1KPNcDmThIIQcxTEddpa3wOVBPSilLyr6kKLf7PTA7sMoX3MhbbcrEELeBRB1nRUSMkrBHsgTNDfISIoBsgtOqp5EW2L0RbGjxKrwkeyCI0TAnfxARv1byU-Zeob9u6.png\" "\\"Is")
Figure 1: The NUPL indicates a bullish rebound in sentiment.<\/em> View Live Chart<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\nThe Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple<\/a> weighs BTC spending by both coin age and transaction size, and compares the data to a previous yearly average, giving insight into long term holder behavior. Current readings have reset to low levels, suggesting that large, aged coins are not being moved. This is a clear signal of conviction from smart money. Similar dynamics preceded major price rallies in both the 2016\/17 and 2020\/21 bull cycles.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com\/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp\/assets\/images\/optimized\/rev-e9e27c1\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/AD_4nXcOJqc_nnq_OReICLi-AFsXK7pxFxUTFf-S7RwktX735Di9Ms4wZaOQVZ8XtmRdkarvG3Z50ko8KlnL9Io-9AV2sI0rxlnb_QVlPPE3dHHoqrkCdz5-Z-I4QijnikRATXlnIkbxHgkeyCI0TAnfxARv1byU-Zeob9u6.png\" "\\"Is")
Figure 2: The largest and most experienced bitcoin holders have stopped selling.<\/em> View Live Chart<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\nBitcoin Long-Term Holders Boost Bull Market<\/strong><\/h3>\nWe\u2019re also now seeing the Long Term Holder Supply<\/a> beginning to climb. After profit-taking above $100K, long-term participants are now re-accumulating at lower levels. Historically, these phases of accumulation have set the foundation for supply squeezes and subsequent parabolic price action.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com\/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp\/assets\/images\/optimized\/rev-e9e27c1\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/AD_4nXfux291qbTkR_6BWo-NGi6UFEwG4f_INlqkdf3ukn8S2YiR9qXCGx2-u72bQWUlIRrMlitNpLSpkJq8TYHqaiUSF2crzDpQOIGiuh1-5JndTBYKpxx4pfgx7VjyF_i3UUSFP2FK8gkeyCI0TAnfxARv1byU-Zeob9u6.png\" "\\"Is")
Figure 3: Long Term Holder BTC supply is rapidly increasing.<\/em> View Live Chart<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\nBitcoin Hash Ribbons Signal Bull Market Cross<\/strong><\/h3>\nThe Hash Ribbons Indicator<\/a> has just completed a bullish crossover, where the short-term hash rate trend moves above the longer-term average. This signal has historically aligned with bottoms and trend reversals. Given that miner behavior tends to reflect profitability expectations, this cross suggests miners are now confident in higher prices ahead.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com\/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp\/assets\/images\/optimized\/rev-e9e27c1\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/AD_4nXd8kJkPrYdM43Z8j-CnLAF-iHdn0zrL4RYwnd90pbIwIMM0ShPUtyS_isER7ebQc2trkB5CMvqqeuhNjq2mp7eSdjzyf5Nqd4ki3IIz5u-NmDGZNWtBBp0fRTAjwcXEpqJP3JzpggkeyCI0TAnfxARv1byU-Zeob9u6.png\" "\\"Is")
Figure 4: Bitcoin miners are becoming bullish once again.<\/em> View Live Chart<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\nBitcoin Bull Market Tied to Stocks<\/strong><\/h3>\nDespite bullish on-chain data, Bitcoin remains closely tied to macro liquidity trends and equity markets, particularly the S&P 500<\/a>. As long as that correlation holds, BTC will be partially at the mercy of global monetary policy, risk sentiment, and liquidity flows. While rate cut expectations have helped risk assets bounce, any sharp reversal could cause renewed choppiness for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn-ilddnad.nitrocdn.com\/XgjmJNBNBbZQEuHAZVzgTqmzytAUTSfp\/assets\/images\/optimized\/rev-e9e27c1\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/AD_4nXc96YnmnRYDfAd52uLBNiMqqZ6x1eq79peUUxf1A7T8YUcYKA77YmEJCpPi98qpUY-bZ2gNpvoiORtIV-hQyEaNfyuPX9Y7QgBgdiGflAJuhetvUFSYazRKyfBVXqWvINMj9Rh0keyCI0TAnfxARv1byU-Zeob9u6.png\" "\\"Is")
Figure 5: BTC remains highly correlated to US Equities.<\/em> View Live Chart<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\nBitcoin Bull Market Outlook<\/strong><\/h2>\nFrom a data-driven perspective, Bitcoin looks increasingly well-positioned for a sustained continuation of its bull cycle. On-chain metrics paint a compelling picture of resilience for the Bitcoin bull market. The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL)<\/a> has shifted from \u201cAnxiety\u201d during the dip to the \u201cBelief\u201d zone after the rebound\u2014a transition often seen at macro higher lows. Similarly, the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple<\/a> has reset to levels signaling conviction among long-term holders, echoing patterns before Bitcoin\u2019s rallies in 2016\/17 and 2020\/21. These metrics point to structural strength, bolstered by long-term holders aggressively accumulating supply below $80,000.<\/p>\nFurther supporting this, the Hash Ribbons indicator<\/a>\u2019s recent bullish crossover reflects growing miner confidence in Bitcoin\u2019s profitability, a reliable sign of trend reversals historically. This accumulation phase suggests the Bitcoin bull market may be gearing up for a supply squeeze, a dynamic that has fueled parabolic moves before. The data collectively highlights resilience, not weakness, as long-term holders seize the dip as an opportunity. Yet, this strength hinges on more than just on-chain signals\u2014external factors will play a critical role in what comes next.<\/p>\nHowever, macro conditions still warrant caution, as the Bitcoin bull market doesn\u2019t operate in isolation. Bull markets take time to build momentum, often needing steady accumulation and favorable conditions to ignite the next leg higher. While the local bottom between $76K\u2013$77K seems to hold, the path forward won\u2019t likely feature vertical candles of peak euphoria yet. Bitcoin\u2019s tie to the S&P 500<\/a> and global liquidity trends means volatility could emerge from shifts in monetary policy or risk sentiment.<\/p>\nFor example, while rate cut expectations have lifted risk assets, an abrupt reversal\u2014perhaps from inflation spikes or geopolitical shocks\u2014could test Bitcoin\u2019s stability. Thus, even with on-chain data signaling a robust setup, the next phase of the Bitcoin bull market will likely unfold in measured steps. Traders anticipating a return to six-figure prices<\/a> will need patience as the market builds its foundation.<\/p>\n
\nIf you\u2019re interested in more in-depth analysis and real-time data, consider checking out\u00a0Bitcoin Magazine Pro<\/a>\u00a0for valuable insights into the Bitcoin market.<\/strong><\/p>\n
The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL)<\/a> is one of the most reliable sentiment gauges across Bitcoin cycles. As price fell, NUPL dropped into \u201cAnxiety\u201d territory, but following the rebound, NUPL has now reclaimed the \u201cBelief\u201d zone, a critical sentiment transition historically seen at macro higher lows.<\/p>\n The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple<\/a> weighs BTC spending by both coin age and transaction size, and compares the data to a previous yearly average, giving insight into long term holder behavior. Current readings have reset to low levels, suggesting that large, aged coins are not being moved. This is a clear signal of conviction from smart money. Similar dynamics preceded major price rallies in both the 2016\/17 and 2020\/21 bull cycles.<\/p>\n We\u2019re also now seeing the Long Term Holder Supply<\/a> beginning to climb. After profit-taking above $100K, long-term participants are now re-accumulating at lower levels. Historically, these phases of accumulation have set the foundation for supply squeezes and subsequent parabolic price action.<\/p>\n The Hash Ribbons Indicator<\/a> has just completed a bullish crossover, where the short-term hash rate trend moves above the longer-term average. This signal has historically aligned with bottoms and trend reversals. Given that miner behavior tends to reflect profitability expectations, this cross suggests miners are now confident in higher prices ahead.<\/p>\n Despite bullish on-chain data, Bitcoin remains closely tied to macro liquidity trends and equity markets, particularly the S&P 500<\/a>. As long as that correlation holds, BTC will be partially at the mercy of global monetary policy, risk sentiment, and liquidity flows. While rate cut expectations have helped risk assets bounce, any sharp reversal could cause renewed choppiness for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n From a data-driven perspective, Bitcoin looks increasingly well-positioned for a sustained continuation of its bull cycle. On-chain metrics paint a compelling picture of resilience for the Bitcoin bull market. The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL)<\/a> has shifted from \u201cAnxiety\u201d during the dip to the \u201cBelief\u201d zone after the rebound\u2014a transition often seen at macro higher lows. Similarly, the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple<\/a> has reset to levels signaling conviction among long-term holders, echoing patterns before Bitcoin\u2019s rallies in 2016\/17 and 2020\/21. These metrics point to structural strength, bolstered by long-term holders aggressively accumulating supply below $80,000.<\/p>\n Further supporting this, the Hash Ribbons indicator<\/a>\u2019s recent bullish crossover reflects growing miner confidence in Bitcoin\u2019s profitability, a reliable sign of trend reversals historically. This accumulation phase suggests the Bitcoin bull market may be gearing up for a supply squeeze, a dynamic that has fueled parabolic moves before. The data collectively highlights resilience, not weakness, as long-term holders seize the dip as an opportunity. Yet, this strength hinges on more than just on-chain signals\u2014external factors will play a critical role in what comes next.<\/p>\n However, macro conditions still warrant caution, as the Bitcoin bull market doesn\u2019t operate in isolation. Bull markets take time to build momentum, often needing steady accumulation and favorable conditions to ignite the next leg higher. While the local bottom between $76K\u2013$77K seems to hold, the path forward won\u2019t likely feature vertical candles of peak euphoria yet. Bitcoin\u2019s tie to the S&P 500<\/a> and global liquidity trends means volatility could emerge from shifts in monetary policy or risk sentiment.<\/p>\n For example, while rate cut expectations have lifted risk assets, an abrupt reversal\u2014perhaps from inflation spikes or geopolitical shocks\u2014could test Bitcoin\u2019s stability. Thus, even with on-chain data signaling a robust setup, the next phase of the Bitcoin bull market will likely unfold in measured steps. Traders anticipating a return to six-figure prices<\/a> will need patience as the market builds its foundation.<\/p>\n If you\u2019re interested in more in-depth analysis and real-time data, consider checking out\u00a0Bitcoin Magazine Pro<\/a>\u00a0for valuable insights into the Bitcoin market.<\/strong><\/p>\nBitcoin Long-Term Holders Boost Bull Market<\/strong><\/h3>\n
Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Signal Bull Market Cross<\/strong><\/h3>\n
Bitcoin Bull Market Tied to Stocks<\/strong><\/h3>\n
Bitcoin Bull Market Outlook<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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