{"id":273025,"date":"2025-03-28T00:45:10","date_gmt":"2025-03-28T00:45:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/28\/2024q4-gdp-gdo-gdp-and-nowcasted-consumption-crash\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:02","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:02","slug":"2024q4-gdp-gdo-gdp-and-nowcasted-consumption-crash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/28\/2024q4-gdp-gdo-gdp-and-nowcasted-consumption-crash\/","title":{"rendered":"2024Q4 GDP, GDO, GDP+, and Nowcasted Consumption Crash"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Third release on GDP. We now have a reading on GDO, as well as an updated view on GDP+.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (black), GDO (tan), GDP+ (green), GDPNow of 3\/26, adjusted for gold imports of\u00a0 (red square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 3rd release, Philadelphia Fed<\/a>, Atlanta Fed, and author\u2019s calculations.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Note that I am plotting not the standard GDPNow, but the one accounting for gold imports. The standard, unadjusted, reading is -1.8%.<\/p>\n

The downshift in growth that is nowcasted is made more profoundly clear when looking at q\/q growth rates:<\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong> GDP (black), GDO (tan), GDP+ (green), GDPNow of 3\/26, adjusted for gold imports of\u00a0 (red square), all q\/q growth rates annualized (calculated as log differences). Source: BEA 3rd release, Philadelphia Fed<\/a>, Atlanta Fed, and author\u2019s calculations.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

One of the big contributors to the deceleration in nowcasted consumption growth in Q1: 0.5% vs 2.9% in Q4.<\/p>\n

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Figure 3:<\/strong> Consumption (black), and GDPNow of 3\/26, adjusted for gold imports (red square). Source: BEA 3rd release, Atlanta Fed and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

GDPNow tomorrow will reflect the consumption numbers for February, coming in the income and spending release.<\/p>\n

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[ad_1] Third release on GDP. We now have a reading on GDO, as well as an updated view on GDP+. Figure 1: GDP (black), GDO<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":273026,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273025"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=273025"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273025\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/273026"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=273025"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=273025"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=273025"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}