{"id":272817,"date":"2025-03-24T21:11:34","date_gmt":"2025-03-24T21:11:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/24\/the-stock-market-has-predicted-nine-out-of-the-last-five-recessions\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:04","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:04","slug":"the-stock-market-has-predicted-nine-out-of-the-last-five-recessions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/24\/the-stock-market-has-predicted-nine-out-of-the-last-five-recessions\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cthe stock market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-56113\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>As attributed to Paul Samuelson. So, with trepidation, I show the SP500 and CAPE over the last half decade:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/sp500cape.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-56114\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/sp500cape.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"864\" height=\"532\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/sp500cape.png 864w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/sp500cape-300x185.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/sp500cape-768x473.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/sp500cape-624x384.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 864px) 100vw, 864px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> SP500 (blue, left scale), CAPE (tan, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Shiller, NBER.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Even including todays rebound, the SP500 looks like a substantial decline.<\/p>\n<p>And what are movements in the SP500 associated with (in addition to interest rates, VIX):<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/sp500epupix.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-56116\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/sp500epupix.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"878\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/sp500epupix.png 878w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/sp500epupix-300x192.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/sp500epupix-768x491.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/sp500epupix-624x399.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 878px) 100vw, 878px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 2:<\/strong> SP500 close (blue, left log scale), EPU (pink, right scale). Source: FRED, policyuncertainty.com.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/03\/the-stock-market-has-predicted-nine-out-of-the-last-five-recessions\" title=\"12:48 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2025-03-24T12:48:48-07:00\">March 24, 2025<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/03\/the-stock-market-has-predicted-nine-out-of-the-last-five-recessions\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] As attributed to Paul Samuelson. So, with trepidation, I show the SP500 and CAPE over the last half decade: Figure 1: SP500 (blue, left<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":272818,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272817"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=272817"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272817\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/272818"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=272817"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=272817"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=272817"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}