The\u00a0March FT-Booth survey<\/a> is out; median q4\/q4 growth for 2025 is 1.6%, down from 2.3% in the December survey (see this post<\/a> for comparison to FOMC SEP, the median entry is 1.7%). The average 90th\/10th bounds are also interesting, in that large downside risks are perceived.<\/p>\n Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP as reported (bold black), March FT-Booth median (blue square), 90\/10 percentile bounds (gray dashed lines, gray +), Chinn forecast (red triangle), GDPNow of 3\/18 adjusted for gold imports (brown square), NY Fed nowcast of 3\/14 (inverted green triangle) all bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, FT-Booth, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n The average 10th percentile reading is 0.5% q4\/q4 growth, down from 2.0% in December (!).<\/p>\n Respondents\u2019 modal response for recession start is still 2026Q3, but ascribe a higher likelihood to an earlier start.<\/p>\n Notes:<\/strong> Proportion of responses in March survey. Percentages in blue indicate December survey.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n The proportion of respondents who believe a recession begins in the second half of 2025 have risen from 14% to 24%, in the first half of 2026 from 20% to 26%. That means half of the respondents believe a recession will have started by 2026H1, up from 36%.<\/p>\n As of yesterday\u2019s close, the 10yr-3mo Treasury spread is -8 bps, having inverted since inauguration day.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/gdppix39b.png\")
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