{"id":272619,"date":"2025-03-20T05:27:03","date_gmt":"2025-03-20T05:27:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/20\/ft-booth-march-survey-and-the-fomc-sep-gdps-trajectory\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:07","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:07","slug":"ft-booth-march-survey-and-the-fomc-sep-gdps-trajectory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/20\/ft-booth-march-survey-and-the-fomc-sep-gdps-trajectory\/","title":{"rendered":"FT-Booth March Survey and the FOMC SEP: GDP\u2019s Trajectory"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The March FT-Booth survey<\/a> is out; median q4\/q4 growth for 2025 is 1.6%, down from 2.3% in the December survey. The FOMC\u2019s Summary of Economic Projections<\/a> (SEP) median 2025 GDP growth is 1.7%, down from 2.1% in the December SEP.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP as reported (bold black), February SPF (light blue), March FT-Booth median (blue square), FOMC SEP median (pink square), Chinn forecast (red triangle), all bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, FT-Booth, Federal Reserve, author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

My current growth forecast (red triangle) is the same as what I penciled back in December; in other words, I thought the Trump policies would be as bad as they turned out to be (at least with respect to economic policy). I based the forecast on subtracting the McKibben et al.<\/a> estimates from pre-Trump baseline.<\/p>\n

An FT article on the survey is here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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