{"id":272399,"date":"2025-03-14T20:43:35","date_gmt":"2025-03-14T20:43:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/14\/prices-for-ordinary-folk-february-and-the-future\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:09","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:09","slug":"prices-for-ordinary-folk-february-and-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/14\/prices-for-ordinary-folk-february-and-the-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Prices for Ordinary Folk: February and the Future"},"content":{"rendered":"

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From the CPI release, food at home (aka grocery) prices:<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> CPI food at home component (bold black), ERS January forecast (blue square), ERS February forecast (red triangle), ARIMA(1,1,0) forecast 2021M01-2025M02 (chartreuse line), all s.a. Source: BLS, ERS, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

This made me wonder how prices for \u201cordinary folk\u201d are doing in general. We know the CPI is \u201cplutocratic\u201d representing expenditure weights of the household at about the 67th percentile. I show food-at-home and shelter components of the CPI, as well as the American Institute for Economic Research\u2019s (AIER) \u201cEveryday Price Index\u201d, or EPI, all normalized in logs to 2024M11=0.<\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong> CPI-all urban (bold black), CPI food-at-home (tan), CPI shelter (green), AIER Everyday Price Index (red), all in logs 2024M11=0. Source: BLS, AIER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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