{"id":272316,"date":"2025-03-13T04:56:56","date_gmt":"2025-03-13T04:56:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/13\/ej-antoni-who-believes-weve-been-in-recession-since-2022-worries-that-democrats-will-misunderstand-gdpnow-to-claim-were-entering-a-recession-in-2025q1\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:10","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:10","slug":"ej-antoni-who-believes-weve-been-in-recession-since-2022-worries-that-democrats-will-misunderstand-gdpnow-to-claim-were-entering-a-recession-in-2025q1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/13\/ej-antoni-who-believes-weve-been-in-recession-since-2022-worries-that-democrats-will-misunderstand-gdpnow-to-claim-were-entering-a-recession-in-2025q1\/","title":{"rendered":"EJ Antoni \u2014 Who Believes We\u2019ve Been in Recession since 2022 \u2014 Worries that Democrats Will Misunderstand GDPNow to Claim We\u2019re Entering a Recession in 2025Q1"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Antoni writes<\/a>:<\/p>\n

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Remember when GDP contracted under Biden but Dems said that wasn\u2019t a recession? What will they say now that Trump is president? ATL Fed\u2019s GDP nowcast for Q1 just plunged from 2.3% to -1.5% as everyone begins to realize our \u201cgrowth\u201d has just been debt-fueled gov\u2019t spending<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Well, I don\u2019t recall many mainstream economists declaring a recession. I certainly didn\u2019t, for two reasons. First, as any sentient economist knows, recessions are not declared by the NBER\u2019s Business Cycle Dating Committee solely on the basis of two consecutive quarters of GDP growth, but rather personal income ex-transfers, employment and other indicators. Second, most macroeconomists were aware (unlike Dr. Antoni) of the anomalous gold imports driving the negative GDP growth nowcast \u2014 here\u2019s my 3\/3 commentary<\/a>. My assessment from 3\/4<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Figure 1:<\/strong>\u00a0GDP as reported 2nd release (bold black), February median SPF (light blue line), NY Fed (2\/28) (blue square), GS (3\/3) (green inverted triangle), GDPNow (3\/3) (red triangle), and GDPNow adjusted to omit import effect of 2\/28 (pink square), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Source: BEA 2nd release, NY Fed, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Goldman Sachs, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

I must confess some confusion as to Dr. Antoni\u2019s beliefs. As argued in this paper with Peter St. Onge<\/a>, the US economy has been in recession since 2022. Recall this graph?<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Source:<\/strong>\u00a0Antoni and St. Onge (2024)<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

As far as I know, Dr. Antoni never declared the end to the recession which allegedly began in 2022. Hence, he should be happy to acknowledge the indication of recession in 2025Q1 as vindication.<\/p>\n

As an aside, Dr. Antoni has never responded to any queries regarding the construction of the deflator that yields the green line in the figure above (I can\u2019t replicate it \u2014 see here<\/a>).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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[ad_1] Antoni writes: Remember when GDP contracted under Biden but Dems said that wasn\u2019t a recession? What will they say now that Trump is president?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":272317,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272316"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=272316"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272316\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/272317"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=272316"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=272316"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=272316"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}