{"id":272256,"date":"2025-03-11T17:12:36","date_gmt":"2025-03-11T17:12:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/11\/deepening-yield-curve-inversion-at-6-months-to-2-year-maturities-since-inauguration-day\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:11","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:11","slug":"deepening-yield-curve-inversion-at-6-months-to-2-year-maturities-since-inauguration-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/11\/deepening-yield-curve-inversion-at-6-months-to-2-year-maturities-since-inauguration-day\/","title":{"rendered":"Deepening Yield Curve Inversion at 6 months to 2 year Maturities since Inauguration Day"},"content":{"rendered":"

[ad_1]
\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
\n

From 1\/21\/2025 to 3\/10\/2025, the 2 year constant maturity yield fell by 40 bps. <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Figure 1:<\/strong> Yield curves as of 11\/5\/2024 (blue), as of 1\/2 \/2025 (tan), as of 1\/21\/2025 (green), as of 3\/10\/2025 (light blue). Source: Treasury.<\/em><\/p>\n

Using the pure\u00a0 expectations hypothesis of the term structure (i.e., no term premia at 6 months and 12 months maturities), the 6 month yield expected 6 months ahead has fallen by about 43 bps since Inauguration day, and 66 bps since 2\/12. Here\u2019s a time series graph:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Figure 2:<\/strong> Six month constant maturity yield (blue), and six month forward six months (red), %. Source: Treasury and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/p>\n