{"id":272228,"date":"2025-03-10T19:43:19","date_gmt":"2025-03-10T19:43:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/10\/why-shouldnt-the-stock-market-be-crashing\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:11","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:11","slug":"why-shouldnt-the-stock-market-be-crashing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/10\/why-shouldnt-the-stock-market-be-crashing\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Shouldn\u2019t the Stock Market Be Crashing?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Uncertainty from text analysis, and from consumer surveys:<\/p>\n

First economic policy uncertainty:<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> EPU (blue), and 7 day centered moving average (red). Source: policyuncertainty.com and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

Next, consider the newly released NY Fed measures of 1 year ahead expected inflation, and uncertainty.<\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong> Median one year ahead inflation (blue), and associated uncertainty (brown). Source: NY Fed.<\/em><\/p>\n

Third, even more interesting is how the \u201cbetter off\u201d a year ahead number\u00a0 (sum of much better off and somewhat better off) has evolved, vs. U.Michigan economic sentiment and Conference\u00a0 Board confidence.<\/p>\n

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Figure 3:<\/strong> U. .Michigan survey median future expectations (blue, left scale), and NY Fed survey \u201cbetter off in a year\u201d (brown, right scale), both demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2013-2025. Source: U.Mich. via FRED, NY Fed, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

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