{"id":272048,"date":"2025-03-05T21:19:42","date_gmt":"2025-03-05T21:19:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/05\/adp-private-nfp-growth-underwhelms\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:13","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:13","slug":"adp-private-nfp-growth-underwhelms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/05\/adp-private-nfp-growth-underwhelms\/","title":{"rendered":"ADP Private NFP Growth Underwhelms"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-55895\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>+77K vs. +141K (Bloomberg consensus). Using the 2021M07-2025M01 relationship between ADP and\u00a0 BLS measures (in log first differences), I nowcast +125 vs Bloomberg +108K (although the 95% prediction interval encompasses a drop to 135310K from January\u2019s 135479K).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/usprivpix_feb25.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-55896\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/usprivpix_feb25.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"936\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/usprivpix_feb25.png 936w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/usprivpix_feb25-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/usprivpix_feb25-768x460.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/usprivpix_feb25-624x374.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> Private nonfarm payroll employment from ADP (blue line, left scale), Bloomberg consensus (light blue square), private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS (red line, right scale), Bloomberg consensus (light red square), author\u2019s nowcast (teal square). Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, Bloomberg, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The author\u2019s nowcast is based on 2021M07-2025M02 data, regressing first differenced log private BLS NFP on first differenced ADP private NFP, and lagged first differenced BLS private NFP (adj-R2 = 0.65, SER = 0.001, Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation test with 2 lags fails to reject no serial correlation null at 10%).<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/03\/adp-private-nfp-growth-underwhelms\" title=\"12:01 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2025-03-05T12:01:28-08:00\">March 5, 2025<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/03\/adp-private-nfp-growth-underwhelms\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] +77K vs. +141K (Bloomberg consensus). Using the 2021M07-2025M01 relationship between ADP and\u00a0 BLS measures (in log first differences), I nowcast +125 vs Bloomberg +108K<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":272049,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272048"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=272048"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272048\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/272049"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=272048"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=272048"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=272048"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}