{"id":272022,"date":"2025-03-05T04:46:31","date_gmt":"2025-03-05T04:46:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/05\/the-outlook-for-grocery-prices-and-eggs-pre-tariff\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:13","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:13","slug":"the-outlook-for-grocery-prices-and-eggs-pre-tariff","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/05\/the-outlook-for-grocery-prices-and-eggs-pre-tariff\/","title":{"rendered":"The Outlook for Grocery Prices and Eggs (pre-tariff)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>So much for grocery prices dropping on day one. Some forecasts from ERS, TradingEconomics:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/cpi_foodathome8.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-55885\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/cpi_foodathome8.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"921\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/cpi_foodathome8.png 921w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/cpi_foodathome8-300x183.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/cpi_foodathome8-768x468.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/cpi_foodathome8-624x380.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 921px) 100vw, 921px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em style=\"font-size: 1rem\"><strong>Figure 1: <\/strong><\/em><em>\u00a0CPI food-at-home component (bold black), ERS January forecast (light blue square), ERS February forecast (red triangle), ARIMA(1,1,0) forecast (chartreuse line). Source: BLS, ERS, author\u2019 calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The February 95% prediction interval includes a 0.2% drop, as well as a 7% increase.<\/p>\n<p>What about egg prices? The ERS February forecast for end-of-year is now higher than the January, at 41%.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/eggspricepix5.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-55886\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/eggspricepix5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1008\" height=\"604\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/eggspricepix5.png 1008w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/eggspricepix5-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/eggspricepix5-768x460.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/eggspricepix5-624x374.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1008px) 100vw, 1008px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Figure 2: Average price of dozen eggs (blue), ERS January forecast (blue square), ERS February forecast (green inverted triangle), implied TradingEconomics forecast of 3\/4 (red triangle).\u00a0 Source: BLS, ERS, TradingEconomics, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/p>\n<p>TradingEconomics forecast is for an 86% increase year-over-year, almost double that from ERS.<\/p>\n<p>Should tariffs stay in place for Mexican imports, one should expect forecasted grocery prices to rise further.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/03\/the-outlook-for-grocery-prices-and-eggs-pre-tariff\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] So much for grocery prices dropping on day one. Some forecasts from ERS, TradingEconomics: Figure 1: \u00a0CPI food-at-home component (bold black), ERS January forecast<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":272023,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272022"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=272022"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272022\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/272023"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=272022"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=272022"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=272022"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}