{"id":272012,"date":"2025-03-04T21:38:32","date_gmt":"2025-03-04T21:38:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/04\/gdpnow-assuming-no-import-effects-still-close-to-stall-speed\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:13","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:13","slug":"gdpnow-assuming-no-import-effects-still-close-to-stall-speed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/04\/gdpnow-assuming-no-import-effects-still-close-to-stall-speed\/","title":{"rendered":"GDPNow Assuming No Import Effects: Still Close to Stall Speed"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Assume no revision to GDP prospects from the imports data, as Goldman Sachs did. What is the path of GDP growth, and the level of GDP?<\/p>\n

I adjusted the GDPNow growth rates for Q1:<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> GDPNow nowcasts for 2025Q1 (red), Alternative GDPNow holding import effect of 2\/28 to none (blue), both in q\/q AR, %. Source: Atlanta Fed and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

While the implied growth rate for Q1 is positive (0.45% q\/q AR), it\u2019s barely so.<\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong> GDP as reported 2nd release (bold black), February median SPF (light blue line), NY Fed (2\/28) (blue square), GS (3\/3) (green inverted triangle), GDPNow (3\/3) (red triangle), and GDPNow adjusted to omit import effect of 2\/28 (pink square), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Source: BEA 2nd release, NY Fed, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Goldman Sachs, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

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