{"id":271964,"date":"2025-03-03T21:59:13","date_gmt":"2025-03-03T21:59:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/03\/have-nowcasts-and-forecasts-ever-dropped-so-quickly-when-not-about-to-go-into-a-recession\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:13","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:13","slug":"have-nowcasts-and-forecasts-ever-dropped-so-quickly-when-not-about-to-go-into-a-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/03\/have-nowcasts-and-forecasts-ever-dropped-so-quickly-when-not-about-to-go-into-a-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"Have Nowcasts and Forecasts Ever Dropped so Quickly When Not about to Go into a Recession?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Asking for a friend. From Atlanta Fed today:<\/p>\n

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Now, as has been pointed out, some of this drop as of 28 February was driven by the mechanical inclusion of the trade balance, where imports deduct in an accounting sense. The outsize increase in imports \u2014 if reversed next release \u2014 should diminish the negative impact if imports have been moved forward in anticipation of tariff imposition.<\/p>\n

Of course, like any tax, if the tariffs (say the ones due tomorrow on Canada and Mexico) is not implemented, then more imports will be shifted forward until the resolution of uncertainty.<\/p>\n

For context, here are recent nowcasts and forecasts, as well as the GS tracking (where the forward shift of imports can be taken into account judgmentally).<\/p>\n

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Since the downward shift in GDPNow from 2\/28 to 3\/3 is primarily due to the ISM maufacturing index and construction numbers, one can be a little more certain of this latter downward revision.<\/p>\n

The GS tracking forecast is at 1.6% q\/q annualized, which is still decent, but slower than Q4.<\/p>\n

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