{"id":271751,"date":"2025-02-26T01:47:56","date_gmt":"2025-02-26T01:47:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/26\/hello-nversion-my-old-friend\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:15","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:15","slug":"hello-nversion-my-old-friend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/26\/hello-nversion-my-old-friend\/","title":{"rendered":"Hello \u2018nversion, My Old Friend\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

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As of today\u2019s close, the constant maturity 10yr-3mo spread is \u2026 0%.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> 10yr-3mo Treasury spread (blue, left scale), 10yr-2yr Treasury spread (red, left scale), both in %; VIX at close (green, right scale). Source: Treasury, CBOE via FRED.<\/em><\/p>\n

In the wake of the term spreads failure (so far) to predict the recession of 2024-25, I\u2019m not sure what to make of this. However, when combined with the measured collapse in expectations registered in the U.Michigan and Conference Board surveys<\/a>, this all hints at a fast deterioration in perceived economic trajectory.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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