{"id":271625,"date":"2025-02-24T03:34:13","date_gmt":"2025-02-24T03:34:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/24\/nfp-prospects-econbrowser\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:09:17","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:09:17","slug":"nfp-prospects-econbrowser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/24\/nfp-prospects-econbrowser\/","title":{"rendered":"NFP Prospects | Econbrowser"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Kalshi betting right now is for 300K reduction in force for the Federal government (h\/t Torsten Slok):<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/payems_doge.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-55764\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/payems_doge.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1036\" height=\"576\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/payems_doge.png 1036w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/payems_doge-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/payems_doge-1024x569.png 1024w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/payems_doge-768x427.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/payems_doge-624x347.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1036px) 100vw, 1036px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> Nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), SPF forecast (light blue), implied end-2025 with Kalshi bet of 2\/23 (green square), assuming 2 contractors for each Federal worker per Slok (red square), all in 000\u2019s. Source: BLS via FRED, Philadelphia Fed, Kalshi (2\/23\/2025), T.Slok, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Personally, I don\u2019t worry so much about the macro impact of fewer workers as much as the disruption and uncertainty engendered (including when the planes start falling out of the sky\u2026)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/epu_tpu_pix.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-55765\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/epu_tpu_pix.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"849\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/epu_tpu_pix.png 849w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/epu_tpu_pix-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/epu_tpu_pix-768x507.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/epu_tpu_pix-624x412.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 849px) 100vw, 849px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 2:<\/strong> EPU (blue), Trade Policy Uncertainty (brown). Source: policyuncertainty.com.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0304393219302004?casa_token=HnFXkQ4yKC4AAAAA:eYNKWamX8UoBq4EAEljbsVmRVZCZaoAamJfigwPC20gVhMeoI56oNLmI_i7lWGwRpraAgsnZHdQ\">Caldara et al. (JME, 2020)<\/a>, a rise in Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU) equal to that in the 2018 trade war decreases investment by 1.5%. Well, from February to July 2018, TPU rose by 189. From October 2024 to January 2025, TPU has risen by \u2026 194.<\/p>\n<p>Add TPU, cutting jobs, erratically declared and capriciously implemented tariffs, and mass deportations, well, then one can worry about the macro outlook.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2025\/02\/nfp-prospects\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Kalshi betting right now is for 300K reduction in force for the Federal government (h\/t Torsten Slok): Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (bold black),<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":271626,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/271625"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=271625"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/271625\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/271626"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=271625"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=271625"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=271625"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}