Tomorrow, we\u2019ll get a reading on January egg prices at the consumer level.\u00a0 With futures prices at about $5.2 in December and $6.65 in January, I\u2019d guess retail egg prices will have gone up. Futures are at $7.65 so far in February.<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong> Top panel \u2013 Consumer Price of Dozen Eggs (blue, left scale), ERS forecast of January 2025 for end 2024 (blue square, left scale), both in $, and PPI for fresh eggs (tan, right scale), 1991M12=100. Bottom panel: Trading Economics futures price for dozen eggs (blue), and TradingEconomics model and analyst based forecast (gray). Source: BLS, ERS, TradingEconomics.com<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n The USDA\u2019s Economic Research Service January 2025 forecast indicates a $5\/dozen price by end-2025. This forecast is based on a time series model. TradingEconomics\u2019 forecast of $9.67\/dozen futures price is based on their proprietary macroeconomic model, and analysts\u2019 forecasts, of undisclosed weighting. However, their forecast clearly includes a judgmental component, such as egg-laying hen stocks, and projections of bird flu prevalence.<\/p>\n Could egg prices be lower by end-2025 than in January 2025? The ERS forecast 95% confidence interval encompassed a price reduction. I\u2019m dubious, although a miracle could happen with respect to to bird flu (although I suppose we ain\u2019t gonna get a vaccine super-fast with all the cuts to medical research the Trump administration wishes to impose). A catastrophic recession could also push down prices. However, since eggs are a staple \u2014 rather than a luxury good \u2014 this is hardly seems implausible.<\/p>\n Implications for grocery prices? My guess is that in the 2023 CPI weights, eggs account for about 2.2% of the food-at-home component of the CPI<\/a>. A 13% December-to-December increase in egg prices accounts for a 0.3 ppts higher food-at-home CPI component.<\/p>\n Addendum: Betting on February egg prices up relative to January.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/totaleggpix_feb25.png\")
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